Chapter 55: 4-3: Post Hoc

Disclaimer: Being neither British nor Japanese, it should therefore come as no surprise that I own neither Harry Potter nor Naruto, nor anything from their respective franchises.

It was well past ten o'clock the next morning when the tent's occupants began to wake, many with great reluctance. Iruka's body ached in that all-too-familiar way that shinobi bodies used to angrily inform their owners that they'd used far more chakra than was strictly wise the previous day. Still, the groggy campers pulled together a late breakfast before packing up their belongings and breaking camp. Iruka and Remus helped Harry and the Grangers carry their bags back to their car, knowing that the lines for the designated Disapparition sites were going to be long no matter when they showed up.

"If we had the space for two more people and their bags, I'd offer to drop you somewhere on our way home and save you the trouble," Wendell said apologetically, "but I'm betting that casting expansion charms on a Muggle car in a Muggle area wouldn't be well-looked-upon by your Ministry."

Remus shook his head, smiling. "No," he said dryly, "it very much would not. Still, the thought is appreciated."

"Besides," Iruka commented, "think of this as our way of showing our solidarity with you: You four spend a long time driving home, we spend a long time waiting in line to go home."

The chuckling group made their farewells, and Iruka and Remus departed for the nearest Disapparition point while the Grangers' car pulled away. Thanks to the previous night's excitement, a lot of wizards and witches had cut short their planned stays at the campgrounds, leading to departure lines so long that Iruka would later learn the Grangers had actually arrived home before he did.

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When he did finally make it back to his quarters at Hogwarts, Iruka found his copy of that day's Prophet already waiting for him. The lead headline screamed: SCENES OF TERROR AT THE QUIDDITCH WORLD CUP

Rita Skeeter was certainly in her element. Her article tore into the Ministry from every possible angle just in its opening paragraphs, yet most if not all of her criticisms were built on solid factual foundations from what Iruka had seen the previous couple of days. The vituperative not-quite-rant even stretched to include issues prior to the riot, such as the near total non-enforcement of the Statute of Secrecy in the campgrounds and the injuries among spectators during the mascot displays. Granted, it was hard to blame the badly overstretched Ministry for everything Skeeter attempted to lay at their feet, but the fact remained that these things had happened as she described, even if her prose was still overly sensationalistic. Besides, better planning and preparation could certainly have at least blunted many of the problems that had occurred.

On the riot itself, it was interesting to note that the article described the Roberts family as "a defenseless and innocent family of four" - under most circumstances, they would have been named as Muggles. Iruka suspected that this was omitted in order to boost the shock value for a readership that largely disdained Muggles at best. Regardless of the reason, he was glad for a little less bigotry and a little more outrage against such malice and cruelty. What followed, however, was distinctly less welcome:

It was just as a heroic group of wizards effected a daring rescue of the four victims that the danger peaked. According to reliable eyewitness reports, an unidentified party somehow conjured a blast of water whose size and violence were beyond what any normal wizard could plausibly create. So great was its scope that it not only swept away the central group of agitators but also caught many of those who had flocked to their twisted spectacle, and even took responding Ministry personnel off their feet! Rioters were tossed about like rag dolls, and that some among them were seriously injured may be taken as nearly certain.

While sources consulted by this reporter were unable to name any known, normal magic which could produce such a torrent, subsequent events may provide a clue: As drenched, dazed, and damaged wizards began to Disapparate or otherwise flee the scene of the crime, an unknown party cast the Dark Mark from a patch of woods nearby. The appearance of that symbol of horror and murder, unseen for nearly thirteen years, prompted quick and terrified Disapparitions by more than just rioters.

The appearance of that dread Mark distracted and diverted the Ministry personnel responding to the riot, permitting all of the rioters to escape save a few too battered to do so. The night's one bit of good news was that, despite the usual meaning of that symbol of depravity, none of the many innocent witches, wizards, and children who had fled into the woods from which it was cast were seriously injured. This is certainly something we should all thank our good fortune for, doubly so as some eyewitness reports suggest that the rioters may have cast at least one Killing Curse during their rampage.

In a further twist, Ministry personnel attempting to apprehend the caster of the Dark Mark succeeded only in Stunning one of their own: Bartemius Crouch, disgraced former director of the Department of Magical Law Enforcement and presently head of the Department of International Magical Cooperation, claimed when revived that he had been nearby and was investigating the Mark's casting when his colleagues filled the area with Stunners. While it is certainly unlikely that such a man would cast the Dark Mark himself, questions must be asked about whether he was truly already in the woods as he claimed, and why. After all, given Mr. Crouch's history (and his employment by the Ministry), one would expect him to have been part of the response to the riot rather than fleeing to safety. Whatever is really going on, this reporter pledges to you, the reader, to find out!

Many questions remain unanswered as of this morning: Who were the rioters? Who was it that attacked them with such brutal efficiency and terrifying power? Who cast the Dark Mark, and why? The Daily Prophet will continue to investigate this incident and bring you any new developments.

For information on the Quidditch World Cup Final game, see our Special Sports Section beginning on page 2...

Iruka couldn't honestly blame Skeeter for reporting (or at least implying) that the water jutsu and Dark Mark were connected. She'd heard hoofbeats and wingbeats together and concluded that it was a hippogriff, when it was actually a horse and a bird just passing each other. That didn't help the frission of resentment born of growing up in a world where the obvious answer was almost always wrong.

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It was no surprise that the chuunin soon found himself summoned to his employer's office. The Albus Dumbledore that greeted him showed the kind of weariness typical of having been roused from sleep and thrown into a crisis situation, and it wasn't hard to guess the cause.

"I take it," the Headmaster began, "that you were behind the rather unexpected swimming lesson given to last night's antagonists?" At Iruka's nod, he continued, "May I ask why you chose that particular attack?"

"Well," Iruka replied, "given the large number of targets I needed something that could affect an area; the Muggles were effectively hostages, meaning it needed to be quick and thorough. Genjutsu would have been my first choice, since it would have potentially let me lock the entire mob down, but if any of them knew Occlumency that could go very wrong very quickly. I also didn't have most of my equipment handy - a few well-placed flash bombs would have really helped, and from now on I plan to include a couple in my day-to-day carry. All that was really left was ninjutsu..." He proceeded to explain his reasoning from the previous night regarding the use of water rather than fire.

Albus nodded sadly. "Unfortunately, the Ministry were only able to apprehend a handful of people last night. Politically speaking, none are of any real consequence, and I sincerely doubt that they will reveal anything when questioned that would be truly useful against their escaped cohorts. As they are all purebloods with influential patrons, it's doubtful that any will spend more than a year in Azkaban, if they are even sent to prison at all. As it is, your greatest accomplishment last night was the safe rescue of the Roberts family. Beyond that, you have managed to greatly inconvenience a few particularly unsavory individuals, and caused varying degrees of injury, expense, and quiet humiliation to a number of others; I suspect we'll see very little of Lucius Malfoy and his fellows for a day or two, while their injuries heal."

"That aside," the aged wizard continued, "I would like to ask if you observed anything related to either the riot or the casting of the Dark Mark that is not already known."

"Nothing comes to mind," Iruka frowned, "but I can leave you a copy of the memory if you'd like. You certainly know a lot more than I do when it comes to magic, witches and wizards, and Britain - you might notice something I didn't know was relevant."

"That would be helpful, though at present I'm not sure when I'll have time to actually review it," Albus smiled wanly. "Let's get that memory copied and adjourn this little talk. We can speak more tomorrow after the staff meeting, but for now I hear the siren song of my pillow."

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The next morning saw everyone in the castle gathered in the Great Hall. A quick glance around showed no changes to the staff beyond the absence of a Defense Professor. Once everyone was settled in, Albus opened the meeting.

"Another year about to begin," he said with equal parts sagacity and eagerness, "and an interesting year it shall be. As you have all undoubtedly noticed by now, there is no Professor present today for Defense Against the Dark Arts; rest assured that I have indeed once again managed to fill that position. This year, the class will be taught by another expert in the field, a retired Auror of some renown, my old friend Alastor Moody." This statement prompted many raised eyebrows around the table, along with expressions of cautious optimism. "Alastor has agreed to teach for a single year only, and has assured me that he will arrive before the start of his first lesson but at a time of his own choosing." Albus smiled wryly. "Those of you familiar with his habits and practices will likely find it no surprise that he prefers to set his own unannounced schedule in order to minimize the opportunity for ambushes. I have also conveyed certain instructions to the House Elves so as to avoid unduly stressing our newest Professor or prompting an unfortunate misunderstanding."

"What of the students, Albus?" asked Poppy, "Alastor has long been the type to hex first and ask questions later."

"Given the numerous prior attempts on his life, I do not begrudge the man a sense of caution, even if he may take it to excess at times," the Headmaster replied. "Regarding the students, I fully expect that his words and actions will swiftly prompt all but the most foolhardy to tread lightly in his presence, and to avoid startling him or acting in a way that could be construed as aggressive. Beyond that, Alastor is well aware that most of our students are underage, and will not use any potentially-harmful spells on anyone unless in response to an attack with similarly dangerous magic. A simple Stunning Hex or Full-Body Bind is harmless, and could serve as an effective object lesson on the hazards of antagonizing skilled duelists."

Some of the staff looked a bit uneasy about this last point, but several showed clear agreement, particularly Severus Snape.

"With that bit of business out of the way, I have two further announcements to make which happen to be connected. The first is that, for reasons which will become apparent, the inter-House Quidditch season must sadly be cancelled. The second is that I have received final confirmation that, for the first time in over two hundred years, Hogwarts will play host to the Triwizard Tournament. I and various other parties involved in organizing the Tournament have already spoken to some of you regarding the preparations necessary; you may take this as confirmation to begin those preparations."

"For those of you that do not already know, the Triwizard Tournament is a competition between Hogwarts, Beauxbatons Academy of Magic in France, and the Durmstrang Institute in Scandinavia. It was begun in the thirteenth century, and discontinued in the eighteenth due to a rising number of fatalities. This year's Triwizard will be the first successful attempt to revive the Tournament, and will feature numerous changes to the rules and implementation in order to permit the contestants to compete in reasonable safety."

"There will be a total of seven official events throughout the year composing the Tournament," Albus continued, "including the three tasks in which the Champions from each school will compete." A wave of his wand sent packets of parchment to each person at the table. "These documents detail Hogwarts' part in the Triwizard, including the dates of each event, the preparations required, and what you personally will be doing. Take a moment to look them over today, but in the interests of expedience I would ask that you save more detailed readings for after this meeting. You may of course come to me with any questions or concerns you might have. I must stress, however, that none of what you learn regarding the tasks of this year's Tournament may be shared with the students of any of the participating schools, or with their families."

Thanks to long experience as a part-time administrative shinobi, Iruka was able to read through his entire packet during the lunch break. Quite a few points were concerning, and he was less than enthusiastic about the described tasks.

"Albus," he asked, "aren't dragons Class XXXXX Dangerous Creatures? How is a lone teenager supposed to confront something with the Ministry's highest rating for danger to wizardkind with only their wand and without any opportunity to research and prepare? I thought this Tournament was supposed to be designed to avoid the high mortality rate."

The Headmaster sighed. "Sadly, I was unable to convince my fellow organizers to select a more reasonable creature for the First Task; there was a great deal of pressure to maximize the spectacle of the Tournament. The most I was able to achieve was to have personnel standing ready to safely extract any contestant deemed to be in immediate mortal danger."

"Spectacle?" Iruka responded, "Putting aside, then, the insanity of pitting lone teenagers unprepared against creatures normally handled by teams of trained professionals, how does the planned Second Task provide any spectacle at all? And won't the hedges block the spectators' view of much of the maze in the Third?"

"All valid points," Albus answered, "each of which I raised with the Ministry officials in charge of planning for the tasks. Unfortunately, Bartemius Crouch has focused almost exclusively on the organizational and logistical aspects of the Tournament, leaving Ludo Bagman to design the tasks themselves. While Ludo is not an evil man, I am afraid that his judgment can be rather lacking at times, and he tends to take a very laid-back approach to his duties. My concerns were dismissed with little more than a wave of the hand and a 'Don't worry about the details, Headmaster'. I was unable to convince the Ministry to take a more sensible route regarding the tasks, and not for lack of trying: The tasks as you see them are actually somewhat moderated in their level of danger from what was originally proposed, and even that cost me quite a number of longstanding favors to accomplish. I very much fear that my standing with the Ministry has been somewhat diminished for the foreseeable future given how aggressively I pushed for changes. Minister Fudge was most distressed when I threatened to bar the Tournament from Hogwarts grounds entirely if the tasks were not made more reasonable. The Tournament as it now stands is the best I was able to manage, and we shall all simply have to do our best to prevent calamity."

There were a few moments of thoughtful, worried silence before Minerva spoke up. "Are you certain we cannot hold the usual school Quidditch season? I know of more than one student that has a real chance at playing professionally, but their chances won't be helped at all by losing a year of practice, experience, and opportunities to display their skills for scouts. I don't know about my fellow staff, but I for one would be more than willing to put in the extra time and effort needed to see both Quidditch and Triwizard take place."

"Alas," the Headmaster replied, "the Ministry was quite adamant on the matter. They wish us to give the Tournament our fullest attentions. Perhaps more pressingly, none of those involved wish to risk any distraction from the fruits of their labor."

After some grumbling about the idiocy and selfishness of government officials, a pastime shared by every human culture, the meeting settled back down to more typical business.

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A few days later, a slightly worried chuunin made his way to the Headmaster's Office.

"What brings you here today, Iruka?" Dumbledore asked. "No troubles preparing for the new term, I hope?"

"No, Albus, that's all as set as it can be. It's just... Something's been niggling at my thoughts for the past several days, and I finally figured out what's bothering me. Before I explain, can I ask exactly how the three Champions are chosen?"

The elder wizard smiled congenially, easily slipping into 'lecture mode'. "They will be selected from those who submit their candidacy by the Goblet of Fire, a rather impressive magical artifact. Unlike any human judge or group of judges, the Goblet is guaranteed to be truly impartial, picking only the most worthy as Champions, however it judges such 'worthiness'." His smile slipped somewhat. "It does have the one major drawback that it will lock those it chooses into binding magical contracts to ensure that they compete, but I intend to warn the students of this fact before they can submit their names."

Iruka's worry was not eased by this. "And exactly how will they submit their names?"

"The night before the Choosing of the Champions," Albus explained, "the Goblet will be lit. All those wishing to submit themselves as possible Champions will need to write their name and school on a piece of parchment or paper and cast it into the Goblet's flames. After twenty-four hours, the Goblet will burn away all submissions but those it finds most worthy, which it will disgorge to make its selections known. Once the Champions have been chosen, the flames will go out, only relit for the next Tournament."

"But the plans you passed out said that only students that are of age can participate," the chuunin pressed, "what's to stop, say, the Weasley Twins from putting their names in?"

"I will be surrounding the Goblet with a magical defense called an Age Line, which will allow only those who are of age to pass through. This will necessitate weakening the wards in that location slightly, but not to a degree that would permit other means of access to the castle or Goblet. The cutoff could be set at any age, actually, and could exclude those older rather than those younger, but I digress. The Goblet will only accept entries submitted directly by hand, not those thrown, levitated, banished, or otherwise conveyed, so all that is needed is to keep ineligible students from getting within arms' reach."

"And people submitting names other than their own?"

Albus blinked. "I must confess, I had not considered that possibility. Given the attraction of the Tournament's prize, such a thing would be rather unlikely; the Goblet does not accept multiple entries from the same person, and thus entering another would preclude entering oneself. May I ask the origin of this line of questioning?"

"The date," Iruka replied. At his employer's look of confusion, he elaborated. "The Choosing of the Champions is set for 31st October, a date that has a bit of a history over the last few years here at Hogwarts. A quote from a Muggle author I heard a while ago: 'Once is happenstance, twice is coincidence, three times is enemy action.' Three years in a row something problematic has happened on Halloween, so putting an important event on that day feels like asking for trouble. It may be just my professional paranoia, but I don't like taking chances with the students' safety, especially after Harry's dream and the mess at the World Cup."

The Headmaster frowned thoughtfully. "Given what Mister Potter remembered of his dream, it is not inconceivable that Lord Voldemort somehow intends to use the Tournament as a means to attack Harry, perhaps by having an agent submit his name. I find myself sharing your concerns, which leaves only the question of how we might address them."

"Post a guard," the chuunin suggested. "Anyone looking to submit their name has to have their slip checked by an adult to make sure it's legitimate. Give whoever's on guard a list of eligible students from all three schools."

"It's possible," Albus stroked his beard in contemplation, "though given the nature of our concerns it might be best to ensure that the person on guard would be able to handle one of Lord Voldemort's agents. The list of possibilities is short, and most of those on it could intimidate potential entrants, open us up to charges of favoritism, or even both. We therefore need someone highly capable, difficult to deceive, approachable, and ideally also able to borrow the Marauder's Map from Mr. Potter to ensure that people only submit themselves." Here his twinkling eyes fixed on his guest. "That really only leaves one person..."

Iruka drooped slightly. "Not my first all-nighter," he sighed, "and at least this time I'll know in advance so I can get in an afternoon nap beforehand. Then again, I'd have probably ended up watching the guard anyway if you'd chosen someone else, so I guess this just cuts out the middleman. I'll talk to Harry about borrowing the Map, but given the reason for it somehow I doubt he'll object."

Defense Teacher Omake:

Source: Black' Victor Cachat

Teacher: Hermione Granger, because she's already read all the textbooks and knows the material (at least in theory)

Reason for Leaving: Romantic entanglement with a student

A/N: The title of this chapter, for those that don't know, is the name of a type of fallacy. The "Post Hoc Fallacy" comes from "post hoc, ergo propter hoc", which very roughly translates as "coming after, therefore caused by", and is the incorrect conclusion that because two events occurred one after the other, the second must have been caused by the first. For a more competent explanation, Google and Wikipedia are things that exist.

Also, "Harry and the Grangers" sounds like a band name. I just noticed this. Still the least clumsy way to identify the group.

I'd originally had Dumbledore explaining the Tournament schedule over several paragraphs, then realized that was boring and having him hand out info packets worked better.

It was only when writing the staff meeting that I came up with the idea that the Tasks were originally even worse-designed than we saw, but Dumbledore burned a lot of political capital to try and keep the Champions and spectators safe. The amount he was throwing his weight around in the process could well have contributed to how readily Fudge believed that he was trying to take over. Besides that, I don't exactly find it implausible that the Ministry would have been pushing for more "spectacular" tasks that were likely to get people killed, not out of malice but out of sheer incompetence and hubris. I figure that many Ministry officials, like most politicians, tend to be poster children for the Dunning-Kruger Effect.

Some might be wondering why, if Dumbledore could allow an Age Line by only slightly weakening the wards in that area, he didn't do so to keep students out of the third-floor corridor in 1991. The answer is that this Age Line only needs to last for 24 hours, or actually a bit less given the exact timing of events. Doing this in '91 would have required recasting the Age Lines once or twice a day, and at a power level only Dumbledore himself could manage, and still would have left the Stone marginally more vulnerable than the alternative. Debatably still a better idea, but the white-bearded one is far from infallible.

Fic Recommendation: "Escape" by SingularOddities - Sixth Year, a marriage law gets pushed through targeting Hermione as a way to get at Harry. Both flee the country, but that doesn't mean they've forgotten those back in Britain...

Posted 7 April 2019

Current WIP Chapter: 71