Preparations
(Note that in some places in front, the exchange rate was wrong by one decimal point, 1 Lev = 1 Dinar = 1 Leu = 1 Franc ≈ 0.29 grams of gold, now changed.)
In international diplomacy, as long as you judge where the interests belong, in the mind of the people who are in charge, you can roughly deduce the ins and outs, as for the truth or falsity many times does not matter!
Aleksandr III thus presumed the secret deal that Ferdinand deemed himself to have with Austria-Hungary to be exactly the same!
Aleksandr III asked rhetorically, "What do you think, Nikolai? I want to hear your own judgment!"
Crown Prince Nikolai pondered for a moment, then said: "I think Bulgaria's strategy has remained unchanged from the beginning to the end! Ferdinand's target is still the Ottoman Empire. Although the Ottomans have faded, it is not a match for current Bulgaria!
The conflict between Bulgaria and Serbia is deeper than the conflict between Germany and France. There is no possibility of reconciliation. There will be a war between Bulgaria and Serbia!
Now Vienna wants to teach the unruly Serbs a lesson, and the Bulgarians have the same goal in mind. Ferdinand is planning to throw down the towel!
But that's about it. Austria-Hungary couldn't have watched Bulgaria wreck Serbia, let alone annex it!
Once Austria-Hungary intervened, the war would have stopped! The fact that Ferdinand did not ask us for help means that he was mentally prepared for it! The effect on us does not seem to be great!"
If Ferdinand had heard Nicholas's judgment, he would have been shocked. Is this still the same ignorant and incompetent Nikolai II in the history books?
How could it be possible that the Tsar who controlled this huge empire, an emperor who could suppress the domestic nobles and capitalists, an emperor who, even after being overthrown, still had the support of the peasant class, was an idiot?
Aleksandr III said with a smile: "Nikolai, you are right, but this is also our chance! In 1886, Austria-Hungary intervened in the War of Bulgaria-Serbia, and many Bulgarians still hold a grudge, and I think after this time, their grudge will be even deeper!
Last time Serbia did not pay the price. This time it is hard to say. Once the Austro-Hungarian intervention failed to satisfy them, I guess they will not honor the good of Vienna!
And here comes our chance to stir up their popular conflicts. Even if Serbia falls completely to Austria-Hungary, we can't let Joseph swallow it easily!"
In a surprise, the prime minister said, "Your Majesty, Austria-Hungary has ambitions to annex Serbia, so should we intervene in this war, or else ~~."
Nikolai interrupted the Prime Minister: "There's no need! Serbia is not so easy to swallow, the British will not let Austria-Hungary alone in the Balkans, and even their allies, the Germans, will probably oppose it!
Our strategic focus is now the Far East. There is a Bulgarian nail in the Balkans is enough. There is no need to involve too much energy in the short term!"
After some thought, Aleksandr III said: "Nikolai is right. There is no need for us to intervene now! Even if I stop this war, Serbia is unlikely to come to us!
That is unless we are willing to go to war with Austria-Hungary over Serbia! Otherwise, once Joseph's patience runs out, all our investments in Serbia will be wasted!"
...
The different opinions at the top of the Russian government are also the result of the different strategies advocated by factions within the Russian Empire! The European faction, represented by the Prime Minister, and the Far East faction, led by Crown Prince Nikolai.
The European faction wanted to expand in the Balkans and then enter the Mediterranean, so they supported the intervention in the Bulgarian-Serbian War; the Far Eastern faction believed that the Balkans were complicated and that Britain would resist Russia's entry into the Mediterranean, Germany, Austria, and Italy, making it difficult to achieve anything, and advocated expansion into the Far East to develop national power before returning to Europe!
From the strategic point of view, Russia was right to conduct the Far East program, and the European powers were too powerful to make a breakthrough.
Even if it failed in the Russo-Japanese War, one could not say that the Far East strategy was a mistake, but only a mistake in execution!
In fact, Russia's gains in the East were still great, with vast territories and rich resources that laid the foundation for the rise of the Soviet Union in later times!
If not for greed, instead of sinking deeper into the Balkan quagmire, the Russian Empire would have continued with the Far East plans that would have rewritten world history again!
It is estimated that Crown Prince Nikolai, who is now opposed to intervening in the War of Bulgaria-Serbia, would never have dreamed that he would start a World War for a Serbia that could be left behind and eventually destroy his empire!
Ferdinand, who had just sent away Count Pavel, the Russian foreign envoy, was now in a good mood. There were no surprises, the Russians were willing to go along with the charade, and now it was safe to say they were winning!
...
"Is the ministries ready, Konstantin?" Ferdinand asked.
Konstantin did not hesitate to say: "Your Highness, we are ready for anything! Bulgaria can enter a state of war at any time, and all the major factories related to the country, have been included in the government's control!
There are enough strategic supplies in reserve for 200,000 troops for one year, and currently, 100 million Leva have been raised for special wartime funds, but I'm afraid the construction projects behind them will have to be postponed!"
Ferdinand nodded in satisfaction, then said, "Good job, let's start mobilizing! Although we will not use the reserves most of the time, consider it an exercise!
Chief of Staff, how are the military preparations going? When can we start?"
Hearing Ferdinand's words, Petrov replied with confidence: "Your Highness, please rest assured that we can attack Serbia at any time!
By the staff's estimates, the war will last no more than two months. Within a month, under normal circumstances, we will be able to capture Kraljevo and end the war!"
The specific how to fight, Ferdinand very wisely chose to defer. His level of personal knowledge, if it is on paper, that's okay; the development of the strategy will also be just fine, but to command the army is not as good as King Zhao of Zhuo! 1)
It is not easy to say whether the Bulgarian military's command ability! At least they commanded a group of militia nine years ago. They defeated Serbia, at least the tactical level is competent!
Ferdinand smiled and said: "Serbia has already started the national mobilization, so let's start. Can't we really wait for them all to be ready before we go to war? The Ministry of Foreign Affairs is in charge of finding a suitable excuse to declare war, and the other ministries will cooperate!
The military must not forget the strategic purpose of this war! All battles must revolve around the core objective of ~ maximizing the weakness of Serbia's living forces!"
"Yes"! Petrov returned with a firm voice.
...
Translator:
1) King Zhao of Zhou was the fourth king of the Chinese Zhou dynasty. He ruled from 977/75 BC until his death twenty years later. Famous for his disastrous war against the Chu confederation, his death in battle ended the Western Zhou's early expansion and marked the beginning of his dynasty's decline.