Chapter 82 Market Analysis

Miss Zhu asked: "I just saw your analysis of the international gold market. Is it too optimistic about the bullishness of gold? It's about 30% bullish. If it's like what you said, the US dollar will depreciate. Seems to be a foregone conclusion?"

Zhou Ziye nodded and said: "Since 9/11, the U.S. economy has been in a quagmire and struggling. To change the current situation, they can only hope to expand exports."

Zhou Ziye will not say the rest, and all of you here understand what he meant. If you want to expand exports, devaluation of your country's currency is an unsuccessful trick. Although currency devaluation is a double-edged sword and has its risks, no institution or country can attack the US dollar market head-on, because the US dollar is a market currency, and anyone with a large scale dare not speculate.

Wang Xuerong asked: "Then your inference on the price increase of resources and minerals is also judged by the inference of the depreciation of the U.S. dollar?"

"Of course there are factors in this aspect, but it is not the main reason. The wave of price increases is not controlled by the United States, but more controlled by our country. If the world economy has been sluggish in this way, then the market demand will not expand. The price will not rise. But since my country joined WTO, my country's economy will inevitably enter a stage of rapid development. This development speed can be said to exceed anyone's imagination. In the past ten years, our country's economic development was mainly limited Inside, and in the future, it will go hand in hand."

Zhou Ziye paused and said: "Looking back, our country has established a complete set of industrial and commercial systems in the past two decades of development. This system will play an even greater role in the future. The current low labor cost in our country means that our country has the foundation to become the world factory. In other words, we are now the world factory. Although we do not have the technological advantage in the industrial field, we are in the primary processing field. , Our country's hegemony no longer can be shaken by any country

. "

The waiter came to serve food again, Zhou Ziye stopped speaking. Qu Li couldn't help but said to the waiter: "We hope you can prepare the rest of the dishes and serve them all at once. We are having an important conversation and don't want to be interrupted."

The waiter politely apologized and left. Zhou Ziye also said: "In developed countries, they look down on the status of this world's factory. In developing countries, they don't have our complete supporting system, so we don't have to worry about this. However, this It has also caused a huge burden to our country, that is, the lack of raw materials. Although our country is a resource-rich country, as a world factory, as a large country that is still in the development stage and has a population of more than one billion people, our country's raw materials It's far from enough to consume."

Miss Zhu said: "Our demand for raw materials will increase the price of these raw materials?"

Zhou Ziye nodded. "We need these raw materials, but unfortunately, the pricing power of these raw materials is not in our hands. Whether it is for commercial or political purposes, they must promote a new round of price increases for raw materials."

At this moment, Wang Xuerong also admired Zhou Ziye very much. Although he also had his own set of thoughts about these, he was also very impressed by the bright spots expressed by Zhou Ziye. This is not like a young man who has just entered society, but more like a business leader who has experienced various struggles. Some arguments are far-sighted. This is really a wicked young man.

He agreed with him and said: "Inferring from this aspect, this is indeed fascinating. We would love to hear your opinion."

Zhou Ziye had no intention of concealing it, and said directly: "From a commercial point of view, if the price of raw materials increases, the price of products does not increase or the price increase is relatively small, then the profit of this intermediate processing will be small. Even if our country bears it. Most of the work for a product, but the huge profits have nothing to do with us. We can only get a small percentage of the processing fee. This is a perfect economic system. It is difficult to get it if we decide only from a commercial point of view. A huge breakthrough is nothing more than negotiating as much as possible to increase our profits. However, the trap behind this is not one or two, but a series of perfect conspiracies. If our country is not prepared in this respect, then the real loss is still there. Behind."

Zhou Ziye paused for a while and continued: "This is the political conspiracy I want to talk about. Whether it is a democratic society or a capitalist society, all governments are established for the purpose of developing the economy and people's livelihood in the controlled area. We. The economic development of a country will inevitably affect the interests of certain countries

. When economic means cannot be restrained, exerting political influence is not the only thing we can do. For example, the current home appliance dumping case was originally a simple economic event, but why does the US government have to impose high dumping duties on Chinese home appliances? The United States obtains their high profits by selling technology, selling standards, and controlling resources. But now, our country does not rely on their technology to develop small household appliances at all. Low-cost labor also makes our products have strong competitiveness. They can't control the economy, so they will also implement administrative intervention. This is only a minor aspect. In the future, we will experience more such incidents and suffer more losses. The small part of the profit we earn from processing will also be eaten away in various conspiracies. "

"For example...?" Miss Zhu asked.

"For example, the price of raw materials rises, the renminbi appreciates, for example, the dollar depreciates. In the next few years, our country can imagine that foreign exchange reserves will increase rapidly. However, because the renminbi is not an international currency, our foreign exchange But we can't spend it. We can't buy high-tech things, sophisticated technology is closed to us, first-class technology also suppresses us, and even foreign resources are not open to us. At this time, what can we do with this money? What? You can only buy foreign luxury goods, buy foreign houses, buy foreign land, buy their national debt. This will also cause the outflow of high-end talents, the outflow of capital, etc. This will be the most troublesome thing for the government in the future. ."

Zhou Ziye didn't make it clearer. He didn't want to say anything about the financial crisis. There is no basis for these. Western developed countries rely on these tactics to develop well for several years. Before the financial crisis, after he set up the situation, it was not too late to ventilate with them. Besides, Zhou Ziye has always doubted whether this financial crisis is our government's retaliation against Western countries, because there is too much evidence that the biggest beneficiary of this financial crisis is our government.

Miss Zhu said: "These analyses are some of the basis for your iron ore price increase, right?"

"Yes." Zhou Ziye took a sip of tea and said, "Iron ore is an irreplaceable raw material. Although its reserves are large, it is in greater demand. I can imagine that in the next five years, we The country's steel output will reach an unbelievable level. Our country's output will exceed the total of the world's top ten. This is because the demand for these steels is too great today with the outbreak of real estate and infrastructure construction. "

Several people have been silent for a long time. After a long while, Miss Zhu said: "Xiao Zhou, if I take the liberty, I want to know your plans for the future. Because, if I can, I also want to help you."

Zhou Ziye said sincerely: "Thank you sister Zhu. Actually, I really have something to ask you for help. My current gambling in the futures market is to be able to have capital to enter the mineral field in the future, although I don't need a country's economics. Support, but more often, I do need the support of the country

. Another point is that I hope to be able to obtain the right to import mineral products in the future. The domestic market is my main sales place in the future. If I don't have the rights in this area, I will be receiving cards everywhere. "

Wang Xuerong said: "Our company has the right to import and export mineral products. When the time is right, we can sit down and talk slowly." Zhou Ziye nodded but didn't take it seriously. Wang Xuerong took control.

Miss Zhu smiled and said, "I will also report your request. Don't worry, as long as you work steadily and have a country in your heart, the country will not chill you."

The topic has come to an end. Qu Li is still a master of shorthand, and even recorded the main points of their conversation just now. Miss Zhu handed her the analysis book together, and she carefully put it into her briefcase.

Several people went to the bathroom to wash their hands and prepare to eat. When Zhou Ziye came back, the briefcase was gone. Zhou Ziye didn't express too much curiosity. The guests were casual, and under the warm hospitality of Wang Xuerong, he enjoyed this sumptuous Thai-style feast.

For Thai food, Zhou Ziye doesn't really like it, mainly because he has never liked the taste of curry. However, the food in this Thai restaurant tastes very good. It has been slightly improved, and it is more in line with the taste of the Chinese people. It is delicious and spicy. In particular, the seafood here is directly air-shipped from Thailand. A three-pound sea crab is their signature dish. The meat is delicious, and it is better than the famous spicy crab in the country.

During the dinner, Wang Xuerong also demonstrated his profound knowledge as a scholar-type official, and gave his own views and inferences on some important nodes of the world's current economic development. Although the understanding in some places is not as clear as Zhou Ziye, the "comer", it does show that he is not a mediocre.

And Zhou Ziye is also determined to settle. Although SDIC's current assets are not large, it is also an agency directly under the State Council. In the following years, they also entered a period of rapid development, and quickly developed in the merger and investment of state-owned enterprises. Chatting with Wang Xuerong happily, showing a sense of appreciation of seeing each other late, the two quickly became familiar with each other like old friends.

However, Zhou Ziye didn't expect much from him either, because their main business is still in the management of state-owned enterprises, and their overseas investment is not strong. In later generations, they are not "star" companies, but low-key people are easy to forget. The most influential one is China Investment Corporation, which was established five years later. That company is the absolute giant that shakes the world.

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