Chapter 113: Disrupting Prussia's deployment

Berlin

Palmerston's arrival did not bring good news to Friedrich Wilhelm IV. This time, the British stood against them as well.

"Your Majesty, the current situation is very unfavorable for us. All the countries in Europe are against us. The only great power that supports us, Austria, is doing so due to public opinion; they won't provide us with any substantial help," said Prime Minister Joseph von Radowitz with a frown.

Facing off with Russia on land alone was something no European nation had the courage to do before the end of the Crimean War, not even Prussia.

Having such a neighbor was Prussia's greatest misfortune. If they couldn't win, they might as well be friends. Prusso-Russian relations have always been the most critical part of Prussian diplomacy.

"Is the bourgeois government still unwilling to give in?" Friedrich Wilhelm IV inquired with concern.

Radowitz pondered and replied, "Yes, Your Majesty. The public's morale is high. After Austria voiced support for us, the German states have been waving our flag. They are trying to use public sentiment to force us into a war with Russia. The bourgeois government believes it's not the time to dampen the spirits of the people. They want to wait for Austria to resolve its internal issues and join us in resisting Russian pressure."

Indeed, the Russian "gendarme of Europe" was intimidating, beyond Prussia's league. However, with Prussian-Austrian cooperation, the tables could turn. Russia couldn't handle both.

But why would Austria oppose Russia to aid Prussian territorial expansion? Where do their interests lie?

Friedrich Wilhelm IV contemplated and said, "Inform our people to take action to cool down the domestic public opinion. Tell Arnim to back off; it's not the time to challenge the Russians."

Who would've thought that the leader of the liberals was actually the king's men? No wonder, after the outbreak of the great revolution, Prussia was able to quickly reach an internal compromise.

Those familiar with history know that this Prusso-Danish War was merely a distraction, initiated by Prussia to divert from domestic conflicts.

By waging foreign wars, they successfully shifted the nation's focus, creating favorable conditions for counter-revolutionary groups.

Without guidance, how could the bourgeois government provoke a Prusso-Russian conflict before consolidating its power?

Either by instigating the Polish independence movement or initiating the Prusso-Danish War, they were challenging the Russians. If things went wrong, the Kingdom of Prussia couldn't handle the fallout.

To prevent the situation from spiraling, Friedrich Wilhelm IV intervened several times to de-escalate the tensions. To some extent, this was Prussia's way of testing the Russians.

In August 1848, under international pressure, the Kingdom of Prussia made concessions to the Russians. The Prusso-Danish War entered a halftime break, with both countries signing the "Armistice of Malmö."

...

Vienna

Upon receiving the "Armistice of Malmö", the Austrian government believed that the Prusso-Danish War had come to an end. The Prussian compromise greatly dissatisfied the nationalists in the German regions, and Austria's plan had succeeded.

Only Franz knew that things weren't so simple. Through this probe, the Prussians had obtained the answer they sought: the Russians would not easily go to war with them.

The primary reason was that the Tsarist government was relatively impoverished, and the Kingdom of Denmark was also unable to bear the costs of the war. Should a war with the Kingdom of Prussia break out, many of Russia's plans would have to be shelved.

"This armistice came too quickly. The terms lean too much towards the Danes. This is very unusual. On the battlefield, Prussia had the upper hand. There's no reason for them to be at a disadvantage," said Franz.

Under normal circumstances, had the Prussian government held out a little longer, the Danes would have yielded, perhaps even giving Prussia some advantages. Why would they accept such a loss?

Prussia is a European power. Though at the bottom of the major powers, they're still members of the club of powers. How could they accept such an obvious disadvantage?

Regardless of the diplomatic pressures from various countries, there was no military intervention. Why would they make such big concessions?

Metternich seemed to have a thought but wasn't sure, so he asked, "Your Highness, are you suggesting the Prussians have a conspiracy?"

"Yes!"

"As the two largest states in the German region, we've always wanted to unify it. Doesn't Prussia want to unify the German region as well? After a series of failures, we realized that given Austria's situation, other countries wouldn't let us unify the German region. But if given a chance, we wouldn't hesitate either.

Now, the Prussians are fanning the flames of nationalism, advocating for unification, and have proposed the 'Lesser German Unification.' What for?

Undoubtedly, the Prussians know they don't have the power to unify the entire German region, so they aim to exclude us and establish a 'Lesser German Empire.'

Not long ago, we thwarted their plot at the Frankfurt Assembly. Why did Friedrich Wilhelm IV reject the clearly Prussian-favoring assembly?

Is it truly because the crown wasn't legitimate enough? In my view, he didn't dare. By supporting the assembly, they would oppose the German states.

Prussia's power is limited. They can't spread their forces thin. Their compromise in the Danish War probably indicates plans to stir things up in the German region.

Our foreign ministry should stay in touch with the various state governments. Don't let the Prussians find a gap. If necessary, we can send troops to help stabilize the situation," Franz said analytically, showing his foresight.

In history, at this juncture, Prussia continued to liaise with the German states, forming the 'Three Kings Alliance,' aiming to replace the Austrian-controlled German Confederation, marking the first step toward unifying the German region.

Although this alliance was eventually dissolved by Austria, Prussia's influence in the German region significantly increased.

They even took this opportunity to feign weakness, continuously decrying the 'Punctation of Olmütz' as a humiliation for Prussia, reducing the vigilance of the major powers against them.

These were all Franz's speculations. He greatly admired Prussia's ability to unify the German region amidst challenges.

However, his position now determined his stance. He wasn't an ardent Prussian supporter like Peter III. His approach had to be speculative, giving no advantage to the enemy.

Austria was prepared. It wouldn't be easy for Prussia to garner allies. In terms of influence in the German region, Prussia couldn't compare to Austria.

If decisions were made by a general referendum in this era, Franz could already be preparing to be crowned Emperor of Germany, as the Habsburgs had a clear advantage.

"Your Highness, many states in the German region are currently unstable. If Prussia wants to intervene, they might offer stability as a condition to ally with some states.

In terms of power, the Prussians will most likely first align with the North German states and then infiltrate the South German states.

As for unifying the German region, that's likely just a façade. Unifying North Germany is the limit to what other countries will tolerate from the Kingdom of Prussia," Metternich analyzed from a diplomatic standpoint.

Considering the current international situation, this seems accurate. Still, the future may be different. Historically, Prussia utilized conflicts between the major powers, defeating each enemy in turn and unifying the German region, excluding Austria.

Due to geopolitics, religion, and the economy, even though Austria had the most influence in the German region, the bourgeoisie of the North German states generally leaned toward the Kingdom of Prussia, giving Prussia a foundation to unify North Germany.

But now, Austria can't tolerate Prussia unifying North Germany so early, as it would mean the two powers' strength would become closely matched.

Franz hasn't yet completed domestic reforms. A powerful Kingdom of Prussia would threaten Austria's interests.

"The foreign ministry needs to disrupt the Prussian plans and strengthen ties with the South German states. The government is preparing to negotiate with the Customs Union, and Austria will join.

If the Prussians obstruct, then we will ally with South German states to reorganize the Customs Union. If needed, we can even split the German Confederation!" Franz said seriously.

In North Germany, Austria just needs to delay Prussia's unification process and can exchange interests if needed. However, in South Germany, Franz won't easily let go.

Even if they can't annex these countries, they need to establish alliances and infiltrate through politics, economics, and culture.

Deepening the current alliance is a good choice, and if needed, they could establish a loose federal empire.

For example, emulating the former Holy Roman Empire, as long as they're unified in name, they can gradually merge through economic and cultural influence.