Chapter 51 Ice Lake Enlightenment II_1

We thought the emergence of life was a chance event, occurring under exceptionally harsh conditions, but in fact, it may be the inevitable in a sea of randomness.

3 billion years ago, the Earth's surface was covered by an ocean, with countless substances mixed together. Over vast periods of time, it was inevitable that some molecules formed amino acids, and some amino acids formed proteins. Accidentally, proteins became active and able to replicate themselves using the simplest base pairs. With the accumulation of time, the most primitive life was born.

The appearance of life is a miracle, but on the vast time scale of billions of years, it seems less surprising, even inevitable. We even find life on Earth in minus 60 degrees Celsius ice layers and in volcanic vents over 300 degrees Celsius, ranging from simple organisms to intelligent civilizations, then to cosmic civilizations.

If we discover a cockroach, it indicates that the place is already infested with them. In this universe, within just 4 light-years, there exist two cockroaches, so imagine the horrifying number of cockroaches there would be in the Milky Way Galaxy (with a diameter of 120,000 light-years). A vast number of cosmic civilizations constitute a total cosmic society, and cosmological sociology is the study of this super-society's form.

Combining human sociology with cosmic society, cosmological sociology will reveal a clearer mathematical structure as compared to human sociology, which is the foundation of cosmological sociology.

Then there are the two simple, self-evident axioms given by Ye Wenjie:

The first axiom is, survival is the primary need of civilizations;

The second axiom is, civilizations constantly grow and expand, but the total amount of matter in the universe remains constant.

From these two axioms, we can deduce the basic picture of cosmological sociology, and we must also add two important concepts that are also premises: the chain of suspicion and the technological explosion.

First, let's talk about the chain of suspicion, an evident truth. The distance between civilizations and their ideological differences are insurmountable gulfs, and it is even impossible to judge whether the other party is a benign civilization (a benign standard is not aiming to destroy the other party). They are inevitably enmeshed in a solid chain of suspicion. Many people might doubt this, thinking that as long as civilizations attempt to merge and interact, they could surely break the chain of suspicion. Of course, that's possible, but what's the cost?

There is no lack of goodwill in the universe; even the Trisolarans are a benign civilization. They did not plan to destroy humanity on a subjective level. After Earth sent out broadcasts, the Trisolarans, instead of retaliating against humans, even allowed Yun Tianming and Cheng Xin to have a distant exchange. But can the Trisolarans trust humanity? To them, humans will always be Mr. Poison Snake.

And do we really understand ourselves? Are we a benign civilization? No, I am far less merciful when I strike, and Zhang Beihai's Escape Fleet is the perfect illustration of this.

Now let's talk about the technological explosion, a phenomenon unique to humans, or common to all civilizations? Is there a point at which technological development comes to a halt? We don't know these answers, but humanity has experienced a technological revolution, so other civilizations surely can too; the progression of science is not linear. A simple speculation is that if you spare weaker civilizations, after hundreds of thousands of years, will they spare you?

Whatever the situation, the encounter between civilizations cannot escape one fact: the moment two civilizations make contact, their fates are sealed. This is the ultimate interpretation of contact semiotics.

The universe is populated with a vast number of civilizations, their number on the same order of magnitude as the observable stars. This fact deeply pierced Logic's heart.

There are so many civilizations in the universe, yet we have never observed them. Where have they gone? When we think of the Fermi Paradox (the Fermi Paradox posits that theoretically, humans could travel to every star in the Milky Way Galaxy within a million years, so if aliens evolved just a million years before humans, they should have already arrived on Earth), the only truth is that they are all hiding.

All other explanations become unreliable. For example, the notion that the universe is a perilous environment and interstellar travel is difficult—when the Trisolarans are already capable of preliminary interstellar travel, shouldn't it develop to maturity after tens of thousands of years? Or the idea of the Great Filter, which suggests that once technology develops to a certain level it becomes a shackle hard to break through, and most civilizations cannot surpass it; such an explanation is unreasonable unless no civilization has ever broken through these shackles.

The Fermi Paradox remains persuasive because it is based on two facts about the Milky Way Galaxy: first, the galaxy is very ancient, about 10 billion years old; second, its diameter is only about 120,000 light-years. So even if aliens traveled through space at one-thousandth the speed of light, they would need only about 100 million years to traverse the Milky Way Galaxy—which is much shorter than the age of the galaxy. If aliens really existed, by this logic they should have long since arrived in the Solar System.

Of course, there's also the argument that Earth isn't special; aliens might have come and found nothing noteworthy, and there are many resources available to alien civilizations, so why come to Earth? This indeed could be possible; why should an alien civilization bother with Earth humans? But what if the premise that the number of civilizations in the universe is on the same order of magnitude as the stars in the sky is true?

Even though this space is crammed full of civilizations, this part of the universe is alarmingly "silent." The universe operates on a simpler rule: survival of the fittest…

Suddenly, the ice beneath Logic's feet shattered, and he plunged straight into the water. Icy and bone-chilling, the water surged over his body, gradually submerging his head. He saw countless stars converging, like the eyes of death, coldly illuminating everything. He understood.

[Since the moment of contact determines the fates of two civilizations, no one dares to expose themselves. Should anyone expose themselves, it is a form of meta-contact.

A civilization cannot judge whether another is benign or malevolent, and one also cannot discern whether the other civilization deems them benign or malevolent.

Unable to know the other civilization's potential and not daring to communicate or explore. Should you send something like a Sophon to investigate, and the other civilization turns out to be more advanced, you would also expose yourself. No one dares to take such a risk, so they maintain a state of mutual ignorance. Even the most advanced civilizations in the universe must learn to survive cautiously, not to be reckless; the first rule of survival is always to lie low.

The universe is a Dark Forest, with each civilization a gunman, ghostly maneuvering through the woods, striving not to make a sound.

Others are the eternal threat; upon discovering another, the best choice is… to annihilate them. The destruction unleashed must also not expose oneself; such elimination is a Dark Forest Strike.

This destruction is random and economical. Although the strike is random, given the terrifying number of civilizations, any exposed civilization is inevitably destroyed; exposure means destruction.]