Chapter 70: Calculating Revenue

Very soon, "I Am MT" began receiving reviews on the official app market.

"What's this? I wanted to see epic battles between the Alliance and the Horde. What do these cards even mean?"

"It's actually a card game, and a type I've never seen before..."

"What should this type of game be called? Battle cards?"

"This is way below my expectations! Refund!"

"To the guy above, this game is free..."

"I was going to give it a one-star review, but after playing, it seems decent. I'll give it three stars for now and wait for further updates."

"Am I the only one who finds this game fun? I think the cards wobbling are cute. I gave it five stars."

"You must be a girl, right? Never played a good game before?"

"Ha, I'm the one above you. Want to bet I'm tougher than you?"

"Giving bad reviews is ridiculous. Alex Parker is just a C-level designer making a mobile game. Did you really expect him to recreate the entire world?"

"Exactly, as a mobile game, I think it's okay."

"Don't you think it's very fair? It's free, no in-app ads, and they gave us a lot of stones. Alex Parker is betting on monthly revenue, after all."

"I think, considering all the free stones, I'll give it five stars for now."

"You were bought off by free stones??"

"What's wrong? I support Alex Parker. Let's see 'Sacred Spring Guardians' be free too!"

...

Currently, "I Am MT" has a rating of 7.6. A few people gave it one star, most gave it four stars, with some three and five-star ratings.

Alex Parker estimated that after a few days, when players realize the game is costly, the rating might drop to 7.4 or even lower.

However, a low rating doesn't affect Alex much because it's a free game. As long as the rating isn't too terrible, new players will still try it.

On the other side, Ben Quinn was also examining "I Am MT."

"Is this it? It's too simple! The battle system is monotonous, and the difficulty doesn't scale at all. You just sweep through levels. It's free and gives away so much money that everyone can play without pressure."

"Who would spend money on this? The game relies entirely on in-app purchases, yet those are just selling cards and stamina? Why would players buy that?"

"Is this a loss-leading promotion? Giving away money to get everyone to play? But you're betting on monthly revenue! If the revenue is too low, it'll be an embarrassing loss. Even if I win, it won't feel satisfying."

Ben Quinn played for nearly an hour.

The levels were still easy to clear, money was continuously given, and he even got a rare purple card in a ten-card draw.

"This game is hopeless. It doesn't recreate the world and is free with too many giveaways. There's no incentive for players to spend money."

"Collecting cards seems like a profit point, but how many players are willing to spend money on cards? Plus, with all these giveaways, they'll get the cards eventually. It's just a matter of time."

"Nothing more to see here. This game is doomed."

Ben deleted "I Am MT" from his phone. In his view, high download numbers were meaningless if players didn't spend money. The numbers were empty, with no substance.

...

The next day, both games had been live for 24 hours.

"Sacred Spring Guardians" sold 38,938 copies in 24 hours, almost twice the initial sales of "Plants vs. Zombies."

"Plants vs. Zombies" had a solid second half because its official app market recommendations gradually increased, giving it sustained momentum.

"Sacred Spring Guardians" relied heavily on Generation Entertainment's push for its first-day sales, possibly lacking long-term momentum.

But Ben wasn't worried. Even if sales dropped later, the first month's sales should not fall below 800,000, ensuring at least 8 million in monthly revenue, with the potential to reach 10 million.

Ben couldn't estimate "I Am MT's" sales data since it wasn't sold per copy. All in-app purchase data was only known to the developer.

But Ben was confident Alex Parker's game couldn't reach 10 million in monthly revenue. The bet seemed like a foregone conclusion.

...

In the experience store.

Alex Parker looked at the data on the screen.

Paul Wilder and the others surrounded him, staring at the numbers, trying to decipher them.

"Manager, explain these numbers!"

"Yeah, 'Sacred Spring Guardians' revenue is out. What about 'I Am MT'?"

"Hurry up, the suspense is killing us."

Everyone was asking at once.

Alex studied the numbers again and said, "Don't worry. Beating 'Sacred Spring Guardians' is not a problem."

Lily Emerson looked skeptical. "Really? You're not just saying that to save face, are you? What do these numbers mean? Where's the revenue? Honestly, if you're planning to run away, I know some guys..."

Alex was speechless. "Stop talking about your friends..."

Jessica Thompson asked, "Manager, can you give us a hint? How are you going to beat 'Sacred Spring Guardians'?"

Paul Wilder nodded. "Yeah, give us an idea."

Amy Johnson squinted, trying to make sense of the numbers, but couldn't.

Alex said, "Put it this way, the first-month revenue won't be less than 20 million."

Paul almost choked. "What, what? Manager, did you say 20 million?"

Amy was also shocked. "20 million is a lot! This is a mobile game!"

Lily Emerson counted on her fingers. "If it's 20 million a month, you'll earn over 10 million!"

Everyone was stunned.

20 million! That would double "Sacred Spring Guardians" monthly revenue. It sounded like Alex was exaggerating.

Alex stood up. "When the first-month revenue is out, if I'm wrong, I'll explain these numbers."

Amy asked, "Why explain if you're wrong?"

Alex smiled. "If I'm right, I won't tell you!"

...

These numbers represented critical data for "I Am MT." Terms like "DAU" and "LTV" sounded fancy but were just abbreviations.

DAU: Daily Active Users.

ARPU: Average Revenue Per User.

ARPPU: Average Revenue Per Paying User.

LTV: Lifetime Value - total revenue generated by a player over their lifetime.

There were other metrics, like next-day retention and seven-day retention.

These data points provided a reasonable estimate of the game's ecosystem, allowing predictions about the game's overall status.

As long as the weak points were improved, the game could be profitable.

"I Am MT's" first-day data showed about 130,000 daily active users, with 14,330 paying users, a 10% payment rate.

Unlike "Sacred Spring Guardians," "I Am MT" sold value-added services, meaning paying users would continue to spend.

Alex estimated that "I Am MT" would accumulate over 2 million active users in the first month.

Within a month, paying players would make multiple purchases, and some free players would convert to paying users.

Alex calculated an ARPU of at least 150 per paying user after a month.

Based on this, even if the average payment rate dropped to 8%, monthly revenue would still reach 24 million.

For reference, in March 2014, "Dota Legends" had 2,925,630 active users, 312,407 paying users, an ARPU of 204.89, and monthly revenue of 64 million.

In this parallel world, due to various reasons, "I Am MT's" performance would be lower and couldn't match the 200 million monthly revenue of "Dota Legends," but ensuring a monthly income of around 20 million was achievable.

This was Alex Parker's calculated estimate.