According to statistics, Hollywood produces around 50,000 scripts annually, excluding unregistered works from students, enthusiasts, and amateur screenwriters. However, out of these thousands of scripts, fewer than 2,000 get approved for production. Even fewer—under 300—make it to filming, and only a fraction, less than 0.3%, ever see a theatrical release.
For film studios, selecting scripts that are both commercially viable and worthy of production is an arduous process, handled manually by pre-development managers. These professionals sift through hundreds of scripts daily, searching for hidden gems. However, unrepresented new screenwriters often struggle to get their work noticed, lacking official channels to verify originality and avoid plagiarism concerns. This outdated and limited selection process stifles innovation, leaving Hollywood studios in a paradox: they struggle to find great scripts while talented screenwriters remain undiscovered.
The Birth of the Blacklist
In 2005, Franklin Leonard, a frustrated pre-development executive, sought to improve efficiency. Reading and re-reading scripts that circulated among major production companies was a time-consuming and often futile endeavor, akin to finding a needle in a haystack. That Christmas, Franklin took action.
He emailed eighty industry colleagues, asking them to submit a list of the best unproduced scripts they had read that year. In return, he promised to share the collective results. From these recommendations, he compiled a "blacklist"—a curated selection of the most promising scripts. Within days, the list became Hollywood's most sought-after holiday gift, spreading rapidly among insiders.
Over time, the Blacklist evolved into a structured system. This year alone, 500 industry professionals participated in the selection process, reflecting the collective judgment of Hollywood's creative elite. Each year, Franklin compiles the list before Christmas, selecting 70 to 100 scripts based on votes. The final document includes contact details for the writers and their representation, offering a crucial platform for unrecognized talent.
The Influence of the Blacklist
The Blacklist's credibility comes from its industry-led selection process, which values quality over commercial interests or screenwriter status. To qualify, a script must receive at least six recommendations from industry professionals.
Over the years, numerous acclaimed films have emerged from the Blacklist, including The Queen, Juno, Lars and the Real Girl, The King's Speech, Slumdog Millionaire, The Social Network, Little Miss Sunshine, Up in the Air, and The Fighter. More recently, titles such as Argo, Life of Pi, Whiplash, Nebraska, Foxcatcher, and American Sniper have followed suit.
Notably, Django Unchained, a script Andy previously introduced to Renly, also originated from the Blacklist. This further underscores the list's role in elevating high-quality storytelling, particularly for films that prioritize character-driven narratives and innovative ideas.
A closer examination of Blacklist scripts reveals that most are not large-scale commercial films but rather intimate, character-centric stories. Small-budget, independent-style productions dominate the list, as mainstream commercial films often adhere to rigid formulas. These movies follow a structured three-act format with predictable plot developments—exemplified by Marvel films, which meticulously time their story beats and character arcs. As a result, major studios often rely on anonymous, up-and-coming directors who can adhere to these standardized templates rather than prioritizing creative vision.
Given these constraints, it is rare to find a commercially viable blockbuster script on the Blacklist. Most Hollywood blockbusters are tailor-made, developed in-house with specific actors, directors, and marketing strategies in mind. Django Unchained, despite its $100 million budget, is an exception, greenlit largely due to Quentin Tarantino's influence.
Even in 2017, only a handful of commercial movie scripts have appeared on the Blacklist. That is why Edge of Tomorrow securing the third spot is so remarkable. Not only has it gained unanimous recognition from industry professionals, but it also fits the commercial blockbuster mold—a rarity for Blacklist selections. Andy is ecstatic about this opportunity, as finding such a script is nearly a once-in-a-lifetime event. For Renly, it's a perfect fit.
Hollywood's Hesitation
However, major studios like Warner Bros. remain skeptical of such scripts. They prefer formulaic, market-tested screenplays that minimize financial risk. Unconventional scripts—especially those emphasizing quality over predictability—can create uncertainty. While a strong script is essential for an indie or prestige film, for a major studio, elements like pacing, tone, climactic structure, visual effects, and audience engagement ultimately determine a commercial film's success.
Even Andy, despite his enthusiasm, harbors some doubts. The transition from script to film is a complex, uncertain process. Unlike art-house films, where a great script can be half the battle, commercial films require multiple rewrites and adjustments to align with studio expectations.
For instance, Life of Pi underwent significant transformations. Originally written by French filmmakers Jean-Pierre Jeunet and Guillaume Laurant, the script was heavily revised by David Magee (Finding Neverland), who ultimately received sole credit. Similarly, 20th Century Fox initially approached Jean-Pierre Jeunet to direct, but his proposed $80 million budget led the studio to reconsider. In the end, they opted for Ang Lee, whose vision and industry clout justified an even higher budget of $120 million.
This illustrates the fluid nature of Hollywood's creative process. Once a script is acquired, it undergoes multiple revisions to match the chosen director's style, the studio's branding, and audience expectations. The same script interpreted by Johnny Depp, Brad Pitt, or Tom Cruise would yield vastly different results, even within the realm of blockbuster filmmaking. The box office impact of each version would also vary accordingly.
Thus, while Blacklist scripts generate excitement, they come with no guarantees. Even experienced professionals like Andy and major studios like Warner Bros. remain cautious about their potential.
For Renly, this marks his second encounter with a Blacklist script, following Django Unchained. He can't help but wonder: What makes Edge of Tomorrow stand out? How does it compare to traditional blockbusters like John Carter, Battleship, or Shadow Recruit? And most importantly, do its strengths translate into a truly great film?
As he flips open the script and begins reading, he realizes something unexpected—it's that script. Has the butterfly effect already begun to take shape?