The Greatest Showman #651

Generally speaking, the distribution models for art films and commercial films are distinctly different, primarily due to the varying audience groups and market potential associated with each genre. The expectations from audiences also differ significantly between the two types of films.

Imagine releasing Blue Valentine as Pirates of the Caribbean 4 — shown in 4,000 theaters in its opening week. Ordinary audiences might not respond at all, resulting in a box office disaster, while art film fans would be reluctant to watch it in commercial theaters, preventing word of mouth from spreading. The distribution costs for such a large-scale release could cause the distribution company to incur significant losses.

Art films, by contrast, follow a more gradual distribution strategy. Typically, the film starts with a limited run in select art theaters, where critics and audiences provide initial feedback. Depending on the reception, the release may expand or scale back. If the response is lukewarm, the film may pull back and shift focus to niche audiences in preparation for awards season. If successful, the film's release expands, aiming for greater commercial success. The process requires constant adjustment of the public relations strategy as the film's reception develops.

This approach explains why some films are initially shown in fewer than 500 theaters, while others might increase to 2,500 theaters within weeks. The seeming spontaneity of the release pattern is, in fact, strategic. For example, Buried Alive last year followed a similar gradual approach.

This method is highly calculated, requiring a strong ability to predict market trends and react quickly to unexpected situations. The key factor is the film's box office potential and its market positioning — qualities that reflect the distribution company's capability.

Every year, there are films that fail to gain traction during the expansion phase, often due to poor strategic decisions, and ultimately miss out on the awards season competition.

Among Hollywood distributors, companies like Weinstein Pictures, Focus Features, and Fox Searchlight are renowned for their sharp instincts in distribution. On the other hand, larger distributors like Warner Bros. and Paramount Classics sometimes falter in their expansion strategies, which directly impacts their chances during awards season.

However, Crazy Love's release strategy is puzzling. After only one week of limited screenings, Focus Features plans to expand it into 2,337 theaters in the second week. Is this a bold move, or is the company making a mistake?

At the Toronto Film Festival, many compared Crazy Love to Ryan Gosling's hit film The Notebook, primarily due to Gosling's friendship with Renly Hall, and The Notebook's success as one of the highest-grossing romantic films of the 21st century. But it's important to remember that Crazy Love is not The Notebook — it's more akin to Blue Valentine, a film with an art-house sensibility and a much lower commercial appeal, as seen in its box office numbers and video rental figures.

By positioning Blue Valentine in the same way as The Notebook, Focus Features risks a major misstep. This situation is reminiscent of Memoirs of a Geisha's release strategy in 2005.

The film, produced by Columbia Pictures and DreamWorks, cost $85 million and featured an all-star cast, including Zhang Ziyi, one of Hollywood's most popular Chinese actresses at the time. With a series of successful Asian films already under her belt, she seemed poised for even greater success. Following its premiere at the Toronto Film Festival, the film received enthusiastic praise and sparked strong expectations for an Oscar nomination, boosting Columbia's confidence.

However, the film's initial North American screenings were underwhelming. After a strong debut in just eight theaters, grossing $85,000 per venue, the reviews soon turned negative, which dampened its chances during awards season.

Despite initial hype, Memoirs of a Geisha saw a drastic decline in its performance. Expanding too quickly from 52 to 1,600 theaters proved disastrous, as audiences disappointed by the film's lack of engagement failed to keep up the momentum. The film's box office plummeted, and media reviews turned unfavorable, undermining its awards prospects.

In contrast to Memoirs of a Geisha, Focus Features is a seasoned distributor known for its careful market positioning. So, why the apparent overreach with Crazy Love?

One possible explanation is that Focus Features is no longer treating Crazy Love as a traditional awards contender but as a commercial film positioned for awards season success. This approach mirrors previous successes like Little Miss Sunshine (2006), Juno (2007), and Brokeback Mountain (2005), all of which were critically acclaimed yet widely accessible films that garnered substantial box office earnings.

If this is indeed the strategy, it would justify the aggressive expansion, but only time will tell if Crazy Love can meet such high expectations. Focus Features' reputation suggests they might have a clear vision, but can Crazy Love continue to generate buzz? Will Renly Hall's star power be enough to carry the film forward?

By October, Crazy Love was screening in 2,337 theaters and achieved a solid box office performance, earning $8,110 per theater over three weekends, for a total gross of $19 million. This success raised some questions: Is Focus Features truly positioning the film for long-term commercial success, or have they overestimated its appeal? Only the coming months will reveal if the studio's bold move pays off.

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