Michelle Williams, Meryl Streep, and Viola Davis: these are the titans of this year's Best Actress competition. For those unfamiliar, Meryl, nominated for her 17th Oscar, is a guaranteed standout. Viola, more commonly seen in independent films and on Broadway, may seem underwhelming at first glance.
But the reality is quite the opposite. Viola is the true frontrunner this year, with Meryl trailing behind in both strength and prestige.
Throughout the award season, Michelle Williams has consistently impressed, earning widespread acclaim. In My Week with Marilyn, she brought Marilyn Monroe to life in a way few believed possible. Despite initial doubts about her casting, Michelle's performance captured the essence of the iconic star, overwhelming audiences and garnering universal praise from critics.
With undeniable talent, youthful energy, and a stellar reputation, Michelle is on the rise. After earning nominations for Brokeback Mountain and Blue Valentine, she has firmly cemented her place among the top-tier actors of Generation Y, and this year, her success is undeniable.
Michelle has already claimed eleven Best Actress awards from critics' groups. Many film critics believe she has the potential to follow Natalie Portman's path to victory, making it two years in a row for Generation Y actors.
However, as the season progresses, the two veteran actresses begin to gain momentum.
Meryl's credentials are beyond question, and her performance in The Iron Lady has been widely praised. Yet, in practice, her impact has been less significant than expected. The Weinstein brothers even played the "it's been 29 years since her last win" card, successfully pushing Meryl into the spotlight. She's now won seven major critics' awards, including the British Academy Award and the Golden Globe, though her advantage this year still remains unclear.
Viola, however, is the true frontrunner this year. With her immense talent, rich experience, and down-to-earth demeanor, she has carved a niche for herself with the Academy, winning five major Best Actress awards from prestigious critics' groups: the New York Film Critics Association, the Los Angeles Film Critics Association, the North American Broadcasting Film Critics Association, the National Film Critics Association, and the Screen Actors Guild. While her wins may be fewer in number, each one is significant. In terms of pure quality, Viola's victory seems all but assured.
As the February sprint approaches, the Weinstein brothers are intensifying their efforts. The real question is: will Viola maintain her lead until the end?
If Viola wins, The Help would be the only film among the five nominees for Best Picture that doesn't also boast nominations for Best Director, Best Editing, Best Adapted Screenplay, etc. This adds another layer of intrigue to the race for Best Picture.
Exciting, isn't it?
"What do you think?" Renly's companions, Ryan and Jessica, asked almost in unison, their words echoing slightly. Renly smiled faintly, first at Ryan, then at Jessica. "Viola Davis."
Ryan and Jessica caught the subtle smile in Renly's eyes. They both responded with the same name, "Viola Davis."
The three of them exchanged knowing smiles. It wasn't that Meryl wasn't talented, but simply that Viola was the stronger contender. As fellow actors, they preferred to set aside biases and public relations and assess the competition objectively. Unfortunately, the Oscars don't work that way.
"The winner of the 84th Academy Award for Best Actress is…" Colin Firth opened the red envelope, revealing the name inside. Without any fanfare, he announced, "Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady."
Renly exchanged glances with Ryan and Jessica, and their shared look conveyed mutual understanding. They rose to applaud, not just out of respect for Meryl's achievement, but also in recognition of her extraordinary career.
Is Meryl the greatest actress in history? Perhaps, perhaps not. But what is indisputable is that her place in film history is assured. Recently, Meryl received the Lifetime Achievement Award at the Berlin Film Festival, a recognition of her long-standing contribution to cinema.
In Europe, Meryl has collected the Cannes, Berlin, and British Academy Awards; in North America, she has all the major accolades, including Emmys, Golden Globes, and Oscars. After her 17th Oscar nomination, she claimed her third Golden Man trophy and her second Best Actress win.
Meryl is only missing a Venice Best Actress award to complete the Grand Slam, but even without it, her legacy is firmly established in the Hall of Fame.
The audience rose to their feet, applauding as thunderous applause echoed throughout the Kodak Theater. It was only the second standing ovation of the evening, after Christopher Plummer's win.
When Meryl took the stage, her first words in her acceptance speech sparked laughter from the crowd: "When I heard my name, it felt like half of America was thinking, 'No way, why is it her again?' But, you know, whatever they say."
Renly remained standing, like everyone else in the theater, admiring Meryl as she accepted her third Oscar. As he looked up at her, his gaze instinctively shifted to Harvey Weinstein in the crowd.
Harvey sat in the corner, a cigar clutched in his mouth. Although smoking was prohibited inside the Kodak Theater, Harvey's cigar remained unlit. His pose exuded an air of defiance, as if he were deliberately provoking Renly.
Of course, it wasn't all about Renly. It was also a moment of celebration for Meryl's triumph. By orchestrating her victory, Harvey had managed to reverse the fortunes of Meryl, pushing her past Michelle Williams and Viola Davis. With the help of the Weinstein brothers' strategic PR efforts, Meryl had managed to turn the tide and secure her win.
The best actress race may have been decided, but the best actor race was already shaping up. Harvey's cigar was a silent signal, a subtle but pointed message.
Facing Renly's gaze, Harvey raised his chin in contempt, a slow, deliberate gesture. Then, in a mocking display, he began to clap—slowly, almost theatrically. It was a clear challenge.
It felt like he was looking at an ant, the power dynamics between them almost palpable. The towering presence of Harvey, combined with the low lighting, created a sense of menace, an unspoken threat that hung in the air.
In Hollywood, offending the Weinstein brothers is never wise. It wasn't until tonight that Renly truly grasped the full implications of this reality.
A year ago, at the Sundance Film Festival, Renly—still an unknown actor—could face off with Harvey. But a year later, after starring in Don Quixote and One Man's Concert, Renly was less concerned with Harvey's provocations.
Harvey may hold immense power in Hollywood, but Renly knew that with his own talent, he could carve out his own path. If Harvey thought he was just an insignificant ant, Renly was determined to show him how the elephant fights back.
Renly resumed clapping, now focused on Meryl. The well-respected veteran had earned her win, but in Hollywood, talent alone wasn't enough. To survive in this vanity fair, you had to navigate industry rules—rules that even great actors like Meryl and Daniel Day-Lewis couldn't escape.
From Chris Hemsworth to Vin Diesel to Meryl Streep, Renly was witnessing the real, often harsh face of Hollywood. But he was no longer intimidated. Renly understood now—like the creation of Don Quixote—the world was cold, and the battles were fierce. But if you lost hope, that was the real defeat.
As Harvey delivered his challenge, Renly was ready. He was determined to forge his own path in Hollywood, and he was confident he could do it.