Throughout the awards season, Renly initially stood out, followed by George, Brad, Jean, and Gary, whose last-minute surge secured his place in the top five nominations.
Each of the five nominees had their own unique strengths and weaknesses. Renly's acting prowess was undeniable, but his body of work was still small and relatively young. Jean, on the other hand, had a significant portfolio, but his limited reputation made public relations challenging. Gary, who had remained largely under the radar until the final stretch, was armed with years of experience, strong qualifications, and the current year's opportunities.
In contrast, George and Brad appeared the most balanced. Both actors had achieved a near-perfect equilibrium in their careers, making their showdown the most anticipated of the season. "George vs. Brad" was undoubtedly the centerpiece of this year's awards.
After receiving his nomination, George was vying for his fourth acting win, while Brad was seeking his third. However, George had already claimed a Best Supporting Actor award for Sin Ruina, whereas Brad had been striving for an Oscar recognition for 18 years, since his first nomination for Twelve Monkeys in 1995, and had yet to secure the win.
In terms of sympathy votes, Brad had a slight upper hand.
These, however, were just tactical considerations on paper.
During the Academy's promotional campaign, George and Brad often appeared together, supporting each other and even generating rumors of an affair. The PR strategy was working, and their alliance garnered widespread admiration, leading to speculations that the real race was between "George vs. Jean."
Gradually, George and Jean teamed up, claiming their advantage. With the combined momentum of sheer talent and buzz-worthy topics, Renly remained consistently in the running, his reputation and momentum keeping him close behind George and Jean. Meanwhile, Brad's upward momentum began to stall.
To combat this, Brad shifted his PR strategy, frequently praising Renly and expressing his desire to work with him. "His performance in Buried Alive reminds me of Edward Norton," he said, showering Renly with high praise.
As the awards season entered its final sprint, Brad and Renly crossed paths multiple times at public relations events and private parties. The two developed a natural rapport, with Brad's network and Renly's professionalism complementing each other. This dynamic ultimately garnered more support than the combination of George and Jean.
Then, the "hypegate" scandal broke.
This completely reshuffled the awards season. Although Jean Dujardin won the first prize at the Actors Guild of America, subsequent wins from Film Critics Associations became unpredictable. In just two weeks, the trajectory of the awards had become uncertain.
Even the most experienced award predictors were struggling to make accurate forecasts at this stage.
Looking at the early awards, Gary, who was considered a finalist, had not secured any wins. He only had a few nominations during the final sprint, relying heavily on his 30 years of experience and word-of-mouth reputation. Given the intense competition this year, his chances remained slim but not impossible.
The remaining four nominees were in close contention.
George led with nine Best Actor wins, including one from the Los Angeles Film Critics Association. His status as a "Hollywood President" still held weight in the industry, and his nomination list was impressive—he was the only one among the five nominees who had been included in all the major best actor nominations.
The Descendants showcased George's mature charm and steady performance, solidifying his chances for the win. It wasn't necessarily the peak of his career, but it certainly represented his best shot at winning.
Jean Dujardin, who had rapidly gained momentum in the second half of the season, was a strong contender. With the backing of Harvey Weinstein and the momentum from The Artist, Jean had captured seven Best Actor awards, including the Golden Globe, the Screen Actors Guild, and the National Film Critics Association awards.
Just months ago, Jean was an unknown French actor, struggling to break into the second-tier of French cinema. Now, he was the fiercest competitor for the Oscar.
In terms of quantity, George still had the edge, but Jean had a slight advantage in quality.
Brad, although second to George in terms of nominations, had won only four Best Actor trophies, with the Austin Film Critics Association being the most significant. Unfortunately, Moneyball didn't perform as well as The Descendants.
Finally, there was Renly. He secured five Best Actor wins from major Film Critics Associations, but his nominations were split between Crazy Love and I'm Fighting Cancer. The dual nominations split the vote, limiting his overall awards haul.
In terms of quality, Renly's wins were formidable—he claimed top honors from the British Academy Awards, the North American Broadcasting Film Critics Association Awards, the New York Film Critics Association Awards, the Boston Film Critics Association Awards, and the San Francisco Film Critics Association Awards. These awards were substantial, giving Renly a solid foothold in the first tier of nominees.
Despite George and Jean's strong PR campaigns, Renly stayed competitive, never fully falling behind.
As the Oscars ceremony approached, George Clooney and Jean Dujardin were the frontrunners, with Renly quietly awaiting his chance for an upset. Behind them, Brad continued to push forward, refusing to give up.
The ceremony itself became increasingly chaotic, with the competition growing even more intense as the night unfolded.
Of the five nominees, only Renly's Crazy Love did not win Best Picture, leaving the other four to battle for the final prize. With Moneyball and Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy eliminated, only The Descendants and The Artist remained in contention for Best Picture.
In other words, the battle for Best Actor had become the night's main attraction. The winner would secure the momentum for the final stage of the ceremony.
But what if, like Best Actress and Best Editing, an upset occurred? If Brad won Best Actor for Moneyball, the night's Oscars would become a true spectacle.
The spotlight grew hotter as last year's Best Actress winner, Natalie Portman, gracefully stepped onto the stage.
The tension was palpable, suffocating. The room felt stifling, the air thick and oppressive. The lights above burned like an unrelenting flame, consuming all the oxygen in the room. Renly's lungs burned with every breath, and his body stiffened under the weight of the moment.
Natalie, standing center stage, seemed to feel the pressure too. Her movements were slightly stiff, as though the weight of the situation was too much to bear.
The Oscar for Best Actor could either solidify the evening's narrative or throw it into complete chaos. With the direction of the night hanging in the balance, the outcome of this one award would decide everything.
The small envelope in Natalie's hands felt heavier than ever before.
Renly felt the suffocating tension, his heart pounding in his chest, each beat echoing in the silence.
Taking a deep breath, Renly fought to calm himself, to suppress the nervousness coursing through his veins. But even then, he couldn't ignore the tension surrounding him.
Jessica, sitting beside him, clasped her hands tightly on her knees. Her face was tense, her lips tight, her nervousness palpable. She offered a strained smile, raised her fist in silent support for Renly, and then crossed her fingers as she turned her gaze back to the stage.
Ryan, on the other hand, seemed unfazed, though his stillness spoke volumes. His breath had become shallow, and the tautness in his muscles suggested he was holding himself together by sheer force of will.
The air grew heavier, and Renly couldn't help but feel the suffocating grip of anticipation. The night's outcome was still in the balance.