The Greatest Showman - Chapter 1177: Airborne List
The Best Director category has sparked the most controversy, leaving many in shock. While Ben Affleck may not have been the strongest contender in terms of raw talent, his film Argo was certainly deserving of a nomination. However, his omission has completely upended the awards season narrative.
Under normal circumstances, Lincoln would have been the front-runner for Best Picture, positioned as the clear favorite to dominate the race. Steven Spielberg, Ben Affleck, and Ang Lee were expected to lead the Best Director category, with Spielberg and Affleck holding slight advantages. The ultimate outcome would have depended on the Academy's third-stage public relations efforts, where Spielberg's bid for a third Oscar remained a strong possibility.
Yet, Affleck's exclusion has upended the entire landscape. Voters themselves seem bewildered by the snub, acknowledging that Affleck was owed a nomination. Sensing an opportunity, Warner Bros. and producer George Clooney pivoted their strategy—abandoning Best Director PR efforts and focusing entirely on securing Best Picture for Argo.
This sudden shift impacts not only Lincoln's Best Picture chances but also Spielberg's bid for Best Director. The awards season trajectory has been thrown into disarray, leaving Oscar campaigns scrambling for new strategies. The usual theories and playbooks no longer apply, and no one can predict the outcome with certainty.
This is the biggest shock of the year! Even after Renly Hall's unexpected Best Actor win last year, the Academy has never seen such an unpredictable turn of events.
Rumors suggest that Affleck's exclusion may not have been purely merit-based. In the weeks leading up to the Golden Globes, Affleck reportedly made multiple public statements asserting his dominance as the year's best director, displaying a level of arrogance that may have rubbed voters the wrong way. Affleck, a figurehead of the "Boston Gang," was already entangled in Hollywood's cultural divide—both in the East vs. West Coast rivalry and the long-standing Boston vs. New York tension. His perceived hubris may have cost him key votes during the nomination process.
Notably, during the nomination stage, only directors vote for the Best Director category. It appears that many within the directing community were not particularly supportive of Affleck. However, in the final voting stage, the entire Academy votes, meaning that sympathy and guilt could drive a surge in support for Argo in other categories.
Despite his snub, Affleck did not hold back his frustration, making multiple public statements expressing his dissatisfaction and openly criticizing the Academy. Surprisingly, no one has stepped forward to rein in the escalating drama.
The Best Director snub remains the most shocking twist of this year's nominations. In contrast, the Best Original Screenplay, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Supporting Actress categories remained relatively stable.
Best Original Screenplay Nominees:
Django Unchained
Moonrise Kingdom
Flight
Amour
The Hunt
A minor surprise was Flight's inclusion over The Master, but the overall list remains within expectations.
Best Adapted Screenplay Nominees:
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Silver Linings Playbook
Lincoln
Life of Pi
The inclusion of Beasts of the Southern Wild was a pleasant surprise, though the competitiveness of the category remains strong.
Best Supporting Actor Nominees:
Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
Alan Arkin (Argo)
Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)
Best Supporting Actress Nominees:
Anne Hathaway (Les Misérables)
Sally Field (Lincoln)
Amy Adams (The Master)
Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook)
Jacki Weaver and Robert De Niro's successful nominations highlight Silver Linings Playbook's strong Oscar prospects, as they replaced Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained) and Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy).
While the supporting categories saw some small surprises, none compare to the chaos of the Best Director race.
The Best Actress category also delivered a mix of expected and surprising nominations. Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook), Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty), and Naomi Watts (The Impossible) were all widely predicted nominees. However, the last two slots went to unexpected contenders: Emmanuelle Riva (Amour), the oldest nominee in Oscar history, and Quvenzhané Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild), the youngest nominee in history. Their groundbreaking nominations reshaped the competition.
Best Actor Nominees:
Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)
Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)
Hugh Jackman (Les Misérables)
Renly Hall (Take Off)
The Best Actor race was expected to be straightforward. Cooper, Day-Lewis, and Washington (Flight) had established themselves as the top three contenders. The final two slots were expected to go to Hugh Jackman (Les Misérables) and either John Hawkes (The Sessions) or Joaquin Phoenix (The Master).
Yet, at the last moment, an unexpected name emerged: Renly Hall, for Take Off.
Hall's nomination was completely airborne, disrupting all predictions.
The Aftermath
Hall's sudden rise in the Best Actor race mirrors the chaos in Best Director. With Affleck's snub, Argo's campaign has taken an unpredictable turn. Sympathy votes may propel Argo toward a Best Picture victory, but Spielberg's chances in Best Director are now uncertain.
As the awards season enters its final stretch, the landscape is anything but settled. With PR strategies shifting, old predictions crumbling, and new narratives emerging, this year's Oscars remain one of the most unpredictable in recent history.
Stay tuned.