Chapter 3

Maintaining a pro-British stance is unwise. Belgium's proximity to Britain would exacerbate tensions with France and Prussia, neither of whom would tolerate excessive Dutch alignment with Britain. While our naval strength has diminished, the disparity with Prussia isn't insurmountable, and the gap between our forces and France's remains manageable. Our new cabinet's foreign policy prioritizes a steadfast alliance with Tsarist Russia—the most amicable relationship amongst Western European powers. We will cultivate this partnership through robust trade initiatives, leveraging Amsterdam's role as the primary repository for Russia's gold reserves. This strategy solidifies the Netherlands as Russia's optimal gateway to European integration. Hendrik William IV nodded thoughtfully. "The Tsarist alliance is paramount, but we cannot afford complacency regarding Sweden, especially given their crucial iron ore reserves. However..."

"What is the current population of our nation, and the size of our colonial holdings?" he inquired. Tolbeck promptly responded: "The Netherlands proper boasts 5.75 million citizens, Luxembourg 250,000. Our East Indies command a population of 10 million, while Dutch Guiana (Suriname) holds 40,000, and the Antilles 20,000." "And the number of Dutch nationals in the East Indies?" "500,000, Your Majesty." William IV's brow furrowed. "A mere 500,000 governing 10 million? Is this sustainable? Is it even remotely effective?" William IV's voice resonated with grave determination. "The Netherlands' trajectory depends not on external alliances, but on internal fortitude. Our development hinges upon escaping the suffocating scrutiny of our neighbors. We must secure a haven for unfettered expansion, a sanctuary where we can flourish unhindered. Europe's pervasive surveillance renders every action vulnerable to intense international scrutiny. Even minor initiatives invite unwanted attention. Therefore, I propose..."

Thorbeck, though attentive, felt a burgeoning curiosity. King William IV's preparedness was evident; this was clearly the main course, the preceding remarks mere appetizers. The monarch's pronouncement was stark and ambitious: a concentrated focus on the East Indies, demanding the immediate creation of robust immigration policies. His aim: a staggering influx of over 100,000 settlers annually, leveraging the kingdom's naval might. A dissenting voice cautiously interjected, highlighting the sheer scale of the challenge. Even such a massive undertaking would represent a minuscule fraction of the indigenous population, hopelessly inadequate to match their exponential growth. William IV, his gaze sharp and unwavering, dismissed the concern with a dismissive wave. "Elementary, my dear fellow," he declared, outlining a cunning strategy. "We shall relocate the diverse native groups of Kalimantan – a region currently embroiled in a complex, multi-national dispute involving the British and even the French – to consolidate our power. This calculated maneuver will simultaneously destabilize the existing order, diverting British attention toward New Guinea and igniting inter-tribal conflict." The King continued, his voice low and resonant, "This manufactured competition for resources will free up vast tracts of land for our settlers. Within two decades, we will dramatically alter the per capita land ownership for the native Dutch population, absorbing two million immigrants into the East Indies. Other islands will serve as springboards for further expansion, transforming them into vital components of our burgeoning overseas territories – a far cry from mere colonies. This bold strategy is the keystone of our counteroffensive, our response to the continental powers' aggression." He painted a vivid picture of future dominance: Sumatra, Java, Sulawesi, Nusa Tenggara, and Maluku firmly under Dutch control, with New Guinea serving as an unassailable bastion, a pivotal base for further expansion. The Melanesian islands, particularly the Solomons, were earmarked as crucial stepping stones, integral to the Netherlands' bid for European supremacy and concealing crucial, undisclosed endeavors. William IV concluded with a sigh of what sounded like regret, lamenting the Spanish occupation of Micronesia and the Philippines, which would have allowed for complete Pacific dominance and a decisive island-encirclement strategy.

A palpable apprehension flickered in his gaze when Spain was mentioned. Spain, far from a second-rate European power in later years, possessed considerable clout. While its European influence paled beside that of Britain, France, Russia, and Austria, its overseas dominions rivaled those of Britain and France, particularly in the Caribbean and the Philippines. This formidable presence was underpinned by a mighty navy, the world's third largest, boasting a 130,000-ton fleet – no mere façade. William IV's eyes ignited. "The New Guinea venture is non-negotiable," he declared, "holding the key to our armaments program, especially naval expansion. This involves armored battleships. No telegrams; secrecy is paramount." *Armored battleships?* Tolbek's heart pounded. Why? Even the British, French, and American navies – giants of the seas – had only recently commissioned such behemoths. He recalled Dutch naval officers lamenting the enviable position of those three powers. For the Netherlands, joining their ranks would be a stunning leap forward. William IV savored his subordinate's awestruck expression, a visible thrill coursing through him. Yet, a crucial caveat followed: "Can we secure sufficient steel?" Tolbek's euphoria evaporated; he felt a jarring descent from lofty heights. A wry smile touched his lips. "Sweden is a major steel exporter, but Britain and Prussia have cornered the lion's share. Sweden hopes to leverage this relationship to counter the Tsarist Empire's antagonism." "Then procuring enough steel for a significant naval buildup will be exceedingly difficult," William IV mused, a frown etching his brow. He seemed to momentarily forget this wasn't an era of steel glut, an age where nations frantically fought against steel imports, drowning in a sea of surplus.

Steel, a critical strategic resource, is seldom traded internationally; only nations like Sweden consistently export it. Thorbeck's grim assessment of resource availability followed: Austria's coal production lagged significantly behind the French Empire, the Kingdom of Prussia, and especially the British Empire, with Russia and the Netherlands also producing comparatively small amounts. However, a substantial coal deposit recently discovered in East India offered hope for a dramatic increase in the Netherlands' coal supply. The disparity in crude steel output was equally stark. Britain dominated, dwarfing the production of Prussia, France, and Austria. Russia and the Netherlands remained minor players. Similarly, pig iron production revealed a vast chasm between the industrial giants (Britain, Prussia, and France) and the Netherlands, highlighting its relative industrial backwardness. The Kingdom's paltry railway network of 300 kilometers paled in comparison to the extensive rail systems of its European neighbors – a stark illustration of its underdeveloped infrastructure. This critical resource deficit, especially in steel, severely hampered the Netherlands' industrial and military aspirations. Its modest national territory further compounded this resource scarcity, creating a formidable obstacle to industrialization and military might. William IV eagerly inquired about the progress of iron ore development in Guyana, a project with the potential to alleviate the Kingdom's iron ore dependency, given its extensive reserves. Thorbeck's response, however, dashed his hopes. The challenging extraction process, hampered by depth and logistical complexities, presented an insurmountable hurdle for the immediate future. While William IV expressed some measure of disappointment, he urged the expeditious development of the Guyanese deposit, acknowledging that any progress would be beneficial. William IV then turned his attention to the crucial bearing production facility. He was acutely aware of the global implications of the Netherlands' ambition to challenge France's dominance in bearing manufacturing, a sector that played – and would continue to play – a vital role in global military power, as evidenced by the impact of French control during both World Wars.

The critical importance of bearings to industrial advancement necessitates aggressive, punitive measures. Under William IV's resolute leadership, the Netherlands will not relinquish control of such strategically vital components. These are fundamental to a vast array of machinery, from the colossal – aircraft and tanks – down to the smallest bicycle wheels. "Our advancements in bearing technology rival Sweden's," he declared. William IV nodded gravely. "This technological supremacy must be maintained. Domestic mechanical progress demands parity with, and ideally, surpassing, other nations. Furthermore, we must accelerate clandestine projects aimed at achieving global dominance." Tolbek, his expression etched with concern, attempted to interject about iron ore reserves, but was curtly silenced by a wave of the king's hand. William IV's gaze sharpened, a sardonic curl twisting his lips. "Following the American Civil War," he remarked, "hasn't Europe's tranquility been... unsettling?" Tolbek, bewildered by this abrupt shift in topic, could only offer a questioning look. The aftermath of the 18th century witnessed the United States' divergent development, North and South. The North embraced capitalist principles, fueling rapid industrial expansion. By the 1850s, its industrial revolution, commencing in the 1820s, was complete. Last year, its industrial output, a staggering $1.88 billion, ranked fourth globally. (Conversion: £1 = $5 = 25 Guilders; Northern US population: 20 million; average annual per capita income: $90, or £18.) This contrasted sharply with Britain's £1 billion GDP, supported by a population of 20.1 million and a per capita income of £50. The Netherlands, boasting a population of 6 million, achieved a GDP of 6 billion guilders (or $1.2 billion, £240 million), yielding a per capita income of £40. Despite this, the Netherlands enjoyed the highest standard of living in Europe, a testament to centuries of prosperity.) Meanwhile, the South clung to its abhorrent system of chattel slavery, relying on 4 million enslaved Africans. This stark contrast to the North's abolitionist stance fueled escalating tensions between the two regions.