Chapter 22: Reid's Pessimism About PLANT 

In the second conference room of the New Misurugi Republic's only luxury hotel, the meeting between the New Misurugi Republic and PLANT resumed after both military administrators had changed their clothes.

Patrick's injuries weren't visible on the surface after changing, but the fact that he now dared not move his body freely suggested that as his adrenaline wore off, the pain would only intensify.

In contrast, Reid's nosebleed had stopped, and although the swelling on his face hadn't completely subsided—with some traces of medication still visible—it didn't hinder his movements in the slightest. He could even continue exchanging glares with Patrick.

Once everyone had taken their seats again, Siegel completely ignored the silent battle of stares between Patrick and Reid and instead addressed Ange directly:

"Your Highness, Princess Angelise, after what transpired earlier, I believe we've already reached some level of consensus. Neither of our sides wishes to continue this cycle of hatred. Therefore, I propose that PLANT and the New Misurugi Republic jointly issue a declaration of friendship, open bilateral trade, and progress together."

Upon hearing this, Reid thought to himself that Chairman Siegel was quite cunning. It sounded pleasant on the surface, but for the New Misurugi Republic to issue a declaration of friendship with PLANT would be tantamount to announcing its alignment with PLANT. The Earth Alliance wouldn't care whether a formal alliance had been established—they would immediately impose harsh sanctions on the New Misurugi Republic's development, and might even launch an outright attack.

Fortunately, Reid had already clarified with Ange while changing that their cooperation with PLANT wouldn't last long. Thus, Ange used a prepared response to decline politely:

"My apologies, Chairman Siegel. The New Misurugi Republic cannot formally announce a friendship with PLANT.

The reason isn't that either Reid or I are still dwelling on past grievances. Rather, Reid once analyzed the strengths and weaknesses of PLANT and the Earth Alliance for me. Given how deeply the Earth Alliance has disappointed us, we've decided to adopt a policy of neutrality."

Ange's words were a tactful way of saying that neither she nor Reid believed PLANT could win the war against the Earth Alliance—yet the Earth Alliance had proven too inhumane—so they chose neutrality, refusing to side with either.

Both Siegel and Patrick understood the implication behind Ange's words. After exchanging a glance, Patrick turned to Reid and challenged him directly:

"Oh? So Mr. Reid has unique insights into the war between PLANT and the Earth Alliance? I'd love to hear them—please enlighten us."

Meeting Patrick's murderous gaze without flinching, Reid pulled up a pre-prepared projection displaying a densely annotated world map of Earth. Adopting the same demeanor he once used for corporate presentations in his past life, he began his explanation:

"Very well, I'll elaborate. First, PLANT's current strategy toward Earth isn't hard to deduce. Your victory in the Casablanca naval battle and the establishment of the Gibraltar base have given you hope of conquering all of Africa."

The current battle at the Suez Canal is being fought by you to completely sever the Earth Alliance's land routes to Africa while turning the Mediterranean into your controlled inland sea. But you've underestimated the Eurasian Federation's resilience—their classic heavy tank tactics are still proving difficult to handle, aren't they?"

Patrick responded with a cold, disdainful laugh.

"So just because our ground offensive has stalled, you think we'll lose the Suez Canal campaign?"

Reid shook his head directly and stated bluntly:

"No, I believe you'll win the Suez Canal campaign. Because you have BuCUEs suited for desert warfare."

"With the high intelligence typical of Coordinators, frontline personnel will quickly recognize the BuCUE's importance. While frontal assaults disadvantage you, leveraging the BuCUE's mobility to outmaneuver those sluggish heavy tanks will secure your victory."

Reid's words startled Patrick. Many frontline officers weren't even aware of the BuCUE's existence—how did this man from the L3 Colony Cluster know? He'd even deduced its combat applications, showing clear familiarity with the mobile suit. There must be a mole in their ranks. He'd need to root out the spy upon returning.

But espionage wasn't something to discuss now. Patrick nodded with measured approval:

"Your analysis holds some merit. Yet if you believe we'll achieve our strategic objectives, why oppose declaring friendly relations with PLANT?"

Reid answered just as directly:

"Because your African southward expansion will inevitably fail. Crippling the African Community and occupying northern Africa is your limit."

"Need I remind you—deploying Neutron Jammers has cost you all Earth's goodwill. Africa suffers worst from the food crisis, and every civilian in your occupied territories will see you as enemies. Since you're seizing African land mainly to alleviate PLANT's food shortages, requisitioning grain will only breed more resistance."

"After occupying North Africa, you'll face endless guerrilla warfare and unrest. Military numbers are already PLANT's weakness—this quagmire will render your southward strategy a joke."

"Unless, of course, PLANT resorts to genocide against the natives—then disregard my words."

"Regardless, the South African Union will keep attacking you. While capturing Suez blocks Mediterranean sea routes, the Earth Alliance can still arm them through other channels."

"Meanwhile, you must defend against the Eurasian Federation's next offensive. Caught between two fronts, holding your gains will be challenging enough. This will deadlock your entire Earth strategy."

Patrick was no fool—his military instincts were sharp. Reid's analysis immediately resonated, elevating the man's perceived threat level in his mind. Who would have thought a mere Eurasian Federation grunt possessed such strategic insight? Fortunately, the Earth Alliance's corruption ensured such talents rarely rose to prominence.

At this moment, Reid was still performing. After analyzing Earth's situation, he directly switched the display to show the cosmic landscape and continued his analysis:

"The situation in space is actually much better than on Earth. In direct confrontations, PLANT would definitely win more than lose. But the same problem remains—your PLANT population is too small. Even if the Earth Alliance trades ten soldiers for one of yours, you still can't afford the attrition.

Moreover, PLANT shouldn't underestimate Earth's people. If they can't win head-on, they'll resort to ambushes and traps. As long as the commanders of the Earth Alliance's space fleets aren't fools, they won't engage you directly during this period.

I can only say that PLANT's current victories are temporary. After a year of fighting, you'll clearly feel your forces dwindling, while the Earth Alliance isn't afraid of attrition. Once ZAFT's soldiers are exhausted, PLANT will naturally lose this war.

And don't expect the Earth Alliance to remain technologically outpaced forever. If I can develop Mobile Suits, so can they. To be precise, the Earth Alliance is already capable of manufacturing the MS frames—their only bottleneck is the operating system. Isn't that why Chairman Patrick and Chairman Siegel rushed to visit our country?"

Patrick was already breaking into a cold sweat from Reid's words. The population gap between PLANT and the Earth Alliance was over a hundredfold, and second-generation Coordinators already struggled with fertility—every loss was painful. If the war dragged on like this, no wonder Reid predicted their inevitable defeat.

However, Patrick merely noted this concern internally. PLANT had countless hidden technologies Reid couldn't possibly know about, so his conclusion was somewhat flawed—at the very least, the Earth Alliance wouldn't catch up so easily.

But classified technology couldn't be discussed openly in a meeting, so Patrick could only dismiss it with a scoff:

"The ramblings of a brat. Fine, given your youth, I won't hold it against you. But you're right about one thing—Chairman Siegel and I don't want the Earth Alliance to obtain Natural OS Technology. So tell me, what will it take for the New Misurugi Republic to keep this OS usable by Naturals from falling into their hands?"