Chapter 385: Survivor Bias

"These are the sample products for the Hoshin Festival. Shinomiya-san, Rinji-kun, take a look."

"Let me see."

Kaguya and Rinji each took one of the beautifully packaged snacks.

"Shuchiin Manju and Shuchiin Senbei, custom-made products funded by the OB Association—quality-wise, no issues at all." Rinji nodded. "The Shuchiin OB Association really doesn't mind spending on things like this."

Since Rinji was the student council treasurer, he had to keep a record of the special festival merchandise. Kaguya, as the vice president, naturally needed to oversee it too.

"Speaking of which..."

Kaguya picked up a heart-shaped pendant, her expression a bit puzzled.

"I remember this was sold last year too. Does it really sell?"

To her, heart shapes were tacky. She didn't think there was a market for this kind of thing.

"Of course! Hoshin Festival is all about this," Tsubame laughed. "You don't know the legend behind the Hoshin Festival?"

Rinji and Kaguya both shook their heads.

Kaguya never paid attention to things like this, and Rinji, being a transfer student, didn't know either.

Seeing that neither of them knew, Tsubame was happy to explain.

"Long ago, in some place, a princess was dying from illness. Her father prayed to the heavens and received an answer: burn a young man's heart, mix the ashes with radish juice, and have the princess drink it. A man who loved the princess deeply stepped forward and offered his heart. In the end, she was saved."

After a pause, Tsubame smiled and continued.

"Because this was written in a Fudoki from the Nara period, and the place where it supposedly happened is said to be right here at Shuchiin High, that's how the Hoshin Festival came to be."

Rinji: "What a cheesy story."

Kaguya: "That's full of plot holes. I don't care for supernatural or romantic stories like that."

"Eh~ you guys are so cold."

"Of course. Eating ashes to cure illness is just superstition." Kaguya shrugged and picked up the heart pendant.

"What does this have to do with the story?"

"Everything."

Tsubame took the pendant from Kaguya, her eyes filled with a girl's dreamy longing for romance.

"A heart shape symbolizes the heart. If you give a heart-shaped object at the Hoshin Festival, you'll gain eternal love."

'How romantic!!!'

Kaguya suddenly perked up.

The same person who mocked the story moments ago was now energized by it.

Giving a heart-shaped item equaled offering one's heart and receiving eternal love.

"My older brother was given a heart-shaped trinket during the Hoshin Festival in high school. They just got married recently."

"Eh? It actually works?"

Despite her usual disinterest in the supernatural, Kaguya bought into it.

"Of course it does~"

"Then I..."

"I think that's probably nonsense."

Rinji cut in.

"Koyasu-senpai's brother did marry the girl who gave him the pendant, sure. But how many of the people who gave out trinkets failed? You've never tallied that. Believing it works just because you've seen success is falling into the 'survivor bias' fallacy."

Survivor bias refers to the error of focusing only on people or things that made it past some selection process, ignoring those that didn't—because the latter are invisible.

"...Rinji-kun, you really know how to ruin the mood at the worst times."

Kaguya, who had just been thinking of giving Shirogane Miyuki a heart-shaped item, felt like a bucket of cold water had been poured on her.

"I'm just raising a question. If you really think giving a heart trinket equals lasting love, then pretend I didn't say anything."

Rinji ignored Kaguya's annoyed glare and calmly recorded product data.

As if remembering something, he suddenly looked at Tsubame seriously.

"Koyasu-senpai, will you be alone during the Hoshin Festival?"

"Eh? Well... on the second day I have a performance with the rhythmic gymnastics club. Other than that, yeah, I'll be alone."

"Then... would you mind having someone accompany you during the festival?"

"!?"

"!!?"

Kaguya and Tsubame both looked at Rinji in shock.

That sounded a lot like a date invitation.

'Rinji-kun, what are you doing!? You have a girlfriend! If you're going to ask someone out, why not invite Hayasaka!? Why Tsubame-senpai!? You scumbag!'

Kaguya was screaming inside. Meanwhile, Tsubame's cheeks turned faintly red.

"Umm... are you asking me to go around the Hoshin Festival with you? That's..."

"Oh, it's not about me," Rinji said suddenly. "It's about Ishigami."

"Huh?"

"Eh?"

"Ishigami Yuu. You know him, right? You were on the cheer squad with him, and now you're both on the festival committee." Rinji explained. "He's my friend. I was supposed to tour the festival with him, but I have my duet with Fujiwara and disciplinary committee work, so I won't have much time. The guy doesn't have many friends and it's his first Hoshin Festival, so I thought... if you're free, would you mind accompanying him? I'm worried he might shut down on his own."

"..."

Rinji's fabricated excuse left both girls dumbfounded.

But Tsubame accepted it with a gentle smile.

"I know Yu-kun. If he's by himself, I'll keep him company. I do know a lot of fun spots."

"Thank you, Koyasu-senpai."

"It's no problem."

Tsubame smiled at Rinji as he gave her a small bow.

"You're a really kind person, Rinji-kun. Still thinking about your friends, even now."

"I wouldn't say kind."

Rinji smiled.

"Not everyone qualifies to be my friend."

"Well, that may be true, but doing this for your friend is still admirable." Tsubame's smile grew even gentler.

"By the way, calling you 'Rinji-kun' all the time feels a bit stiff. Can I call you Rinji instead?"

"Up to you."

"Yay~"