Bosnia Conflict

Just as Victor's infamous nickname, "Merchant of Death," suggested, no sooner had he left Republika Srpska in Bosnia and Herzegovina than Radovan Karadzic assumed the presidency of the entity. Even before firmly securing his position, Karadzic's Bosnian Serb forces launched a military offensive against both Croatian and Bosnian Muslim targets.

Serbia's first move was to seize territories where Serbs formed a majority. In addition to contesting areas along the eastern Serbia-Bosnia border with the Muslims, and fighting in the northwest near Sarajevo, Serbian forces also clashed with Croats near the northern border with Croatia. Multiple armed factions opened new fronts, and the war rapidly engulfed two-thirds of Bosnia's territory. Nearly 200,000 people were swept up in what became Europe's largest local conflict since World War II.

Thanks to military aid from Serbia and covert Soviet support, the Bosnian Serb army, far stronger than ever before, gained a swift strategic advantage. Croatian forces, lightly armed and possessing only a handful of tanks and armored vehicles, were no match for the Bosnian Serbs equipped with Shilka anti-aircraft guns, T-54 tanks, and a few Hind helicopters.

Like a wildfire, Bosnian Serb troops soon took near-complete control of Sarajevo, the capital of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Meanwhile, Muslim forces resisting on the Bosnian border engaged in fierce battles, but the Serbs managed to capture most key cities in under a week. The rapid Serbian advance was greatly aided by intelligence supplied by the Soviet Union.

However, with their victories stretching their forces thin, Serbian troops began losing the ability to concentrate attacks, exposing weaknesses. This allowed Croatian guerrillas and regular troops to mount counteroffensives.

Thanks to Yanayev's warnings, the Serbs restrained themselves from widespread genocide, and Karadzic repeatedly ordered his forces not to target civilians directly. As a result, only sporadic civilian killings were reported in the war zones.

The conflict's escalation alarmed European nations, especially NATO-led Western powers. The outbreak of the Bosnian War triggered a massive refugee crisis. War-displaced families fled not toward former socialist countries like Hungary, Bulgaria, or Romania, but south toward Greece, or west using Italy as a springboard to reach welfare states such as France and Germany.

German Chancellor Helmut Kohl convened urgent talks with French President François Mitterrand and British Prime Minister John Major. They agreed the Bosnian conflict threatened to spark widespread unrest across Europe and could even fracture the European Union.

Mitterrand scoffed at the concerns, insisting that as long as economic and social stability prevailed, external turmoil would not topple a country's political foundation. He also emphasized that Britain, France, Germany, and Bosnia lacked significant economic ties.

"It's easier to impose sanctions on Bosnia and Herzegovina and force them to the negotiating table than to worry about trade or aid," Mitterrand said dismissively. "Yugoslavia has disintegrated. Only the Republic of Serbia and the Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina remain. Are they trying to recreate Tito's glory? Does Milosevic truly believe he is the Serbian people's savior? In my view, economic blockades, military sanctions, and NATO airstrikes will force them to negotiate."

"I agree that Croatia and the Muslims want peace talks, but the Serbs don't," Major added. "They currently hold overwhelming firepower. If they don't capitalize on this window to reclaim territory, they'll never get the chance afterward."

As Britain's representative of European dissent, Major subtly hoped the refugee crisis would strain France and Germany and thus widen the channel divide to Britain's advantage.

"The peace talks will be long and painful," Major said. "Why don't we first plan how to accommodate the sudden influx of refugees into Western Europe?"

"Wouldn't that be moot if the war ends and refugees stop fleeing?" Kohl responded. "Once Bosnia stabilizes, refugees will return home. Germany keeps records of every refugee arriving here. Let's focus on how to force Serbian surrender."

Cole gave Major a sly look, silently warning him against opportunism. Major merely smiled, unfazed.

"I'm still advocating the same formula: airstrikes, economic blockades, and military pressure," Kohl continued. "Even if Serbia has steel forces rivaling the Soviet Union, it cannot evade aerial bombardment."

"But have you considered something else?" Kohl asked suddenly.

"What is it?" Major and Mitterrand asked simultaneously.

"That's the Soviet Union's silence on this issue. Such a major conflict— even the White House voiced concern—yet the Soviet Union remains mute," Cole said, puzzled. Any Soviet abnormality usually signaled differences with the West.

Kohl's comment dampened the mood, casting a shadow of foreboding.

"Could it be that the Soviet Union is secretly backing the Serbian army in this civil war?" Cole whispered.

Meanwhile, in a CIA office, Robert Gates examined intelligence from Europe showing that before the war erupted, a Russian international arms dealer had surfaced in Bosnia and Herzegovina, coinciding with the outbreak of armed conflict. The dealer, nicknamed the "Death Trafficker," was on the CIA's special watch list.

"This guy's formidable," Gates murmured. "He's been to Mozambique, where the civil war suddenly intensified and peace talks collapsed. In Colombia's jungles, drug cartels acquired armed helicopters, becoming a major anti-government threat. Now he's appeared in Serbia and Bosnia, and Yugoslavia's civil war flares. No wonder he's called the Merchant of Death. His deals spark wars like a wedge."

Gates flipped through more reports. "The last Interpol officer investigating this man's crimes vanished near Mogadishu—robbed by pirates, with all info stolen. This guy's fascinating."

The dealer's contacts ranged from South American drug lords to Africa's People's Armed Front. With money and arms, he forged ties everywhere. His near-perfect sales record attracted even the United States, the Soviet Union's old rival, eager to exploit his talents to bolster their coffers.

"Assistant, upload his profile to our European database. Track his movements," Gates ordered, eyes sharp with determination. Holding Victor's dossier, he whispered, "If I'm right, this man has superpower backing."

The Soviet Union indeed had hidden motives in this conflict, and Gates suspected he knew Victor's true aim.

"I have a feeling this man will turn Europe upside down in the years ahead," Victor said quietly.