What was the probability?

Shimlee: "Grandma's diary says there is a map leading to the treasure but it got lost many years ago. The first step to obtaining the treasure is to obtain the map."

Shimlee and herself were sitting in their room and going through Grandma Monica's diary

Keiro: "Hmm...Didn't grandma search for the map herself?"

Shimlee: "Yes she did, but she was not very successful, her diary says that the map is probably with Leblue's ancient families. One of them might be protecting or hiding the map."

Keiro: "And that family was probably affiliated with the queen of the last dynasty."

Shimlee: "They could have passed down the map as a family heirloom or something."

Keiro: "In that case, we should make a list of ancient families from Leblue.But what if they moved out and settled elsewhere?"

Shimlee: "Don't worry, grandma has already made a list of suspicious families in her diary." Shimlee said flipping through the diary.

Keiro sighed and lay flat on the ground lazily.

Keiro: "This is too much trouble...why don't we just let the ghosts be...I mean they are friends after all...They are together even in death... Maybe it's a good thing."

Roju: "It's seventeen point six percent."

Keiro quickly jumped up...Roju had come back from doing his calculations.

Roju: "The chance of the treasure existing is 17.6 percent."

Seventeen point six!! That was a huge percentage...

Keiro: "Are you sure?"

Roju: "I have used some simple Bayesian statistic model and analysis."

Keiro gave an evil laugh while Shimlee furrowed her brows in disbelief. There was such a high chance for the treasure to exist, no wonder so many people had come in search of it...Even that group of friends who turned into ghosts...they perhaps did not die for nothing.

Keiro: "Then let us be the first-ever group to find the treasure, we'll become world-famous...we would be given awards and medals huhuhu..."

Shimlee looked at Keiro and let out a sigh.